After positive feedback on my in depth preview of the National Hunt Chase, I decided to do another starting with the Ultima. Now this has been written over the course of a few days so bare with if prices/targets are not spot on but I did as much research into interviews and stable tours as possible.
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First thing is first, there’s near 70 entries so let’s cut out the dead wood that is 99% likely not to go, because of other races being confirmed or further targets in the season ahead confirmed. These can be the Irish National, Grand National, 4miler, Close Brothers, JLT/RSA, recently ran in tough races or waiting for Aintree in terms of the favourite currently Gold Present. Irish horses Mala Beach, Alpha des Obeaux, Mossback, Vieux Morwan, General Principle and Monbeg Notorious have been confirmed for the Irish National, 4 miler or elsewhere. American would more than likely go Gold Cup, Seeyouatmidnight, Pleasant Company, Ultra Gold, Gold Present and Vicente will be saved for races at the Aintree festival. Benbens, Lakeview Lad, Dell Arca, Yala Enki, Wild West Wind and Mia’s Storm have been either confirmed for other races, recently ran in top races such as Grand National trial on heavy ground or have hurdle targets.
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Next we have the horses that simply won’t get into the race because their ratings are too low to get in. These are Federici, Space Cadet, Looksnowikebrian, Shanroe Santos, Band of Blood and Bells Of Ailsworth. Now we get onto the “maybe”. These are horses that have a decent chance if turning up however they simply have so many entries it’s impossible to say at this stage, or the trainers have mentioned other targets ahead of the Ultima. Keeper Hill is a perfect example, he has 5 entries and could be pitched into the RSA, Ultima, Kim Muir, Close Brothers however he’s more likely to go the 4 miler but has options. Others include Markov, Rocklander, De Plotting Shed(all Close Brothers), Sutton Manor, Pendra, Braqueur D’or and Actinpieces(both Kim Muir).
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We know have to rule out the horses that are just pure trash this season. The ones that either look like they’re rapidly declining, can’t jump for toffee or just running so poorly it’s hard to place a penny on them. Out Sam has just gone backwards the last year despite joining Elliot, another of his Jetstream Jack has recently put in dismal efforts, others including Sizing Codelco, Double Ross, Tintern Theatre, The Young Master, Carole’s Destrier, Viconte de Noyer, Tenor Nivernais, or horses that just prefer brutal ground such as Kings Odyssey, Vic de Touzaine and Pressurise.
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Finally, before getting a final shortlist of potential winners, I’m confident in ruling out horses that are just too high in the weights. Horses that are proven and exposed and don’t have any room to improve. Buywise, Doing Fine and Wakanda are solid horses but are just exposed and are what they are. Final Nudge, Lord Scoundrel, Double Treasure and Space Cadet have been well held recently off similar marks too. In any race, especially a festival handicap I want to side with a progressive improver who’s definitely got the future ahead of him.
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Now we have cut out the dead wood, we can look a little in depth at some of the horses. Solighister is progressive for Neil Mulholland however he’s inexperienced over fences, all his chase runs have been less than 5 runners and he’s got no Cheltenham form either. Theatre Guide has some nice bits of Cheltenham form however he’s had 9 runs when rated 150+ with no wins. Smooth Stepper ran in last weeks Eider. Eamon an Cmoic has been kept to flat track and has no Cheltenham form. Perfect Candidate is quite exposed and on proper spring ground more than likely wants further, he’s also off a career high mark. Go Conquer ran well in this last year for a long way, however that was off 137 and after some nice performances he’s 151, he’s possibly also better right handed. Gwencily Berbas connections have great success at Cheltenham including last with Tully East in the Close Brothers handicap. He had a squeak on bits of form however he’s a doubtful stayer mainly running at intermediate trips, the one run over further than 2m5 he won but it was a very weak beginners chase and he was clear on ratings. Knight of Noir has moved trainers and hasn’t ran since, no thanks. Ramses de teillee is progressive however his best form is definitely on heavy ground and he’s also in the novice handicap. Rock the Kasbah is usually kept to softer ground too and his only run at the festival so far in his career was very poor. And finally Royal Vacation is definitely classy but his mark is too high to win off for a festival handicap and there’s slight question marks over his ability in big fields having PU in Hennessy and with his PU in the RSA last year.
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Three horses who I believe have their optimum trip at intermediate trips. Traffic Fluide, Shantou Flyer and Samtegal. Shantou Flyer has brilliant course form with a big handicap win off a similar mark and two big runs at the New Year meeting and Trials Day. Personally I think he prefers cut and he’s unlikely to get the services of quality conditions like Bastiyan or Bowen which were massive helps recently. Sametegal is interesting off his mark, he was 8th off 150 in the Brown Advisory plate and was 3rd in the Triumph won by the great Our Conor. Both he and Shantou Flyer are in the Brown Advisory Plate and are interest for that but I can rule them out of the Ultima. We’re getting there! A few more to rule out, Testify is a really nice horse, he’s 3/3 on heavy ground over fences this season at between 2m and 2m4. He’s got 5 entries at the festival in the novice races, the Close Brothers, Brown Advisory Plate and this and I believe this is his most unlikely destination. Minella Daddy has no Cheltenham form, has been kept to flat tracks and has also been held off his current mark on his last 3 runs after a win off 131 earlier in the season. Cogry has some very good Cheltenham form including when beating Singlefarmpayment earlier in the year however he’s generally better on a softer surface and the last two years he’s skipped the festival for the Uttoxeter Midlands National. Braqueur D’or‘s 4th in the Hennessy reads well however he’s never ran at Cheltenham before which is a negative and Sam Twiston-Davies mentioned the Kim Muir or 4m as his targets in his Racing Post Q&A. Snow Falcon is very interesting considering he’s rated 157 over hurdles and is now 149 over fences, however he’s not the most natural jumper of a fence having arrived chasing later in his career and he’s got multiple entries in the Kim Muir, 4m and Irish National. Id worry about his jumping in a festival handicap where the margins are so thin and think he goes elsewhere. Beware the Bear PU in the Welsh National latest which is never a good prep however he did run well in the 4m last year but he ran better at Ayr after and is more likely one for the Scottish National. O O Seven has a few nice pieces of form but he’s been held off marks around 152/153 for his last 4 runs and after running so well in the Topham at Aintree last year is more likely to be primed for that again. De Plotting Shed is the last horse I’m confidently ruling out, he’s very well handicapped, in fact he’s 7lb lower over fences than hurdles but is more of a 2m-2m5 horse and has been hyped for the Close Brothers.
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To find a bet and narrow it down even more, we’ve got to be more critical and find that horse that has everything going for him heading into Cheltenham. Well handicapped, Cheltenham form, experience of the big fields and hurly burly of the festival, with a trainer or connections well established at getting them ready and with improvement still left in their marks.
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Missed Approach; He’s had a hard season already with placed efforts in Hennessy, Classic Chase and Edinburgh national so it’s unlikely he’s going to be at peak for Cheltenham. He’s more than likely going to be aimed for Scottish or Aintree national like last year however he’s definitely a strong contender now dropped to 137 with his strong 2nd in the 4 miler last year behind Tiger Roll. He’s not a definite runner however he’s dropped to an interesting mark at a course he clearly likes and stays well at. There’s just not much room for improvement of his mark especially considering he’s been quiet well backed in decent handicaps recently and ran well without winning. (Since been confirmed hes going to the Kim Muir)
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Keeper Hill;
This lad is a much improved chaser compared to the level he reached over hurdles. He’s a Grade2 winner and has form with some of the top novices. There’s a slight doubt about his ability to handle Cheltenham as he’d been kept away from the festival last year and his ability to handle jumping and the rumble tumble of big fields. There’s also the fact he’s got 5 Cheltenham entries in the JLT, RSA, 4miler, Close Brothers Novices Handicap and the Ultima. The owners have said a decision will be made next week so he’s not even a definite runner either. (Since been confirmed “most likely” for 4miler)
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Pendra; A super horse and super at Cheltenham, his festival record is simply outstanding. A 3rd in the Novices Handicap off 137. After 4months off he was 5th in the Ultima off 140 and last year he was 2nd in Kim Muir off 145 after 11 months off. He’s not ran since last years festival however he’s clearly a cracking horse fresh and at Cheltenham and Charlie Longsdon does a terrific job with him. He is 10 now though so there’s the likelihood he finds one or two just better handicapped and more progressive than he is and there’s the fact that Aintree and Irish nationals are possibilities after running in them before. (Since been confirmed for Kim Muir)
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Casse Tette;
Casse Tette is an improved horse for Gary Moore however he’s never gone 3m before and he also holds an entry in the Brown Advisory plate in which Moore likes to have a decent chance in. He’s also got poor Cheltenham form and generally been kept to flatter tracks after spending a while in France when with Guillieme Macaire.
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Those horses definitely have strong chances and I wouldn’t put anyone off however they’re not definite runners, and there’s slight question marks over either their stamina or ability to handle a big rough festival handicap.
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Heron Heights; Although he’s interesting at 66s, he’s probably just not good enough. He’s got course form, he’s used to big fields, he’ll handle the conditions but he’s ultimately had 4 chances off 137/138 in big handicaps and finished below midfield in 3 of them. De Bromhead also has a terrible record with handicappers in England with just 2 wins from 48 runners. He’s had success at top level with Special Tiara and Sizing Europe but has failed to win a handicap at Cheltenham so this is one I can cross off even though the price is a little tempting.
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This brings me to my final 7. It’s like the XFactor isn’t it. Ibis Du Rheu, Coo Star Sivola, Big Bad John, Last Goodbye, Dingo Dollar, The Storyteller and Singefarmpayment. Firstly let’s take a look at the specific trainers in question and their records in the Ultima in the last 10 years. Nicholls and NTD both operate in a throw as many darts at the board as possible with even 3/4 runners in one year, Nick Williams has a super record with Reve de Sivola finishing 3rd and Miljama finishing just a neck 2nd. Liz Doyle has never had a runner in the race. Tom George had Singlefarmpayment finish 2nd last year and Elliot has only had 2 in the race, both last year, when he had Clarcam unplace and Noble Endeavor 3rd.
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King 0080198F39 – 10 runners, 1 winner, 1 place
Nicholls PFF70P5040 – 10 runners, 0 winner, 2 place
Twiston-Davies 690585U7PP8P78 – 14 runners, 0 winners, 2 place
Williams 32 – 2 runners, 0 winners, 2 place
Doyle 0 runs
George 200 – 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 place
Elliot 39 – 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place
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Big Bad John is very interesting. Rebecca Curtis horses have left her yard left right and centre and a few have improved with their new stables and this is another to do that. He was rated 144 after winning a G2 for Curtis but he then dropped down to 133 and made a winning start for NTD earlier this month. The poor form was simply down to the fact Rebecca Curtis has had a horrid 12-24 months with poor form due to viruses affecting her horses etc. He’s now 138 after winning on his first start for NTD meaning that he’s still below his peak rating for Curtis. However, there’s doubts about how he’ll handle the course. PU on his only start at the course in the 4m and all 4 career wins have come on flat tracks, Newbury, Kempton and Ascot. He’s got a right chance if he improves off that last run and at 25s I wouldn’t put anyone off but one of my most important factors is course form which he has none. I can imagine he’d be one to run well here but then improve on that at Aintree or Sandown where the courses there are more likely to suit.
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Dingo Dollar I wrote and tipped up Dingo in the 4m write up, he’s progressive, he travels and he jumps. He’s one of the least exposed going into Cheltenham handicaps and already he’s proven stamina with 4 wins over 2m7+. In a recent interview with King he says that Dingo will not go to the 4k due to his age and is either going the Ultima or the valuable handicap at Ayr. King used to the same route with Label des Obeaux who ran in the Ultima but was much improved when placing at Ayr on Scottish National day. Dingo dollar is 25/1 NRNB and that’s a cracking price if he turns up. If he doesn’t you get your money back but he’s as short as 12/1 without the NRNB so it’s definitely worth taking a chance that he goes at that price. I personally think King mentioning the Ayr race is a bit of a red flag in terms of his chances at Cheltenham, whether he’s not battle hardened or tough enough yet for a big field rough and tumble or whether King just feels the Ayr race is worth targeting but again I wouldn’t put anyone off at 25s NRNB.(Hes since shortened in the betting with this being a confirmed target so at 16s no bet for me.)
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Ibis du Rheu is really interesting for Paul Nicholls, he’s a previous festival winner when an impressive winner of the Martin Pipe in 2016. He beat a decent field that day with Flying Angel and Tully East just behind and that was off 139. Last year he ended up in the Ultima when sent off 12/1 off a mark of 146. The race didn’t go his way and he was pulled up and wasn’t seen again until a little spin at Newbury last time. That was off a 300+ day break and he definitely shaped like he needed the run. As the weights have come out today, he’s been dropped from 144 to 141 for that run meaning he’s now 5lb lower than last year and only 2lb higher than when winning the Martin Pipe. He’s a really interesting runner and at 33s NRNB he’s definitely worth a shot however he is winless over fences still albeit off much higher marks and having been PU last year, that would put me off a little.
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Singlefarmpayment. What can you say about this horse. Hes certainly been a cliff horse of mine and if he shows back to his best theres no chance he would be out of the 3 but the last two runs hes just made too many mistakes. A brilliant 2nd in this last year behind Un Temp Pour Tout when sent off fav, he was then primed for the Hennessy when running a monster race coming down at 2 out. Hes been disappointing since but he has been running on softer ground than he likes and he simply loves Cheltenham and could be one of these types that comes alive at Festival time. The worry is Tom George said hes unsure whether to run after the last day and has been sent to a jumping specialist for extra work. If he turns up on the day its a tip in itself but at 10s I can leave.
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The Storyteller; A horse to be on the cautious side of with having 5 entries however this does seem his most likely destination. He could simply be one of those grade horses in a handicap after having a very light season and nice introduction to fences. Remember he was a monster gamble in the Martin Pipe off just 4lb lower before his injury, as short as 9/2 in some places. He’s clearly been laid out for a handicap of some sort again over fences and his mark is actually quite fair compared to some bits of form. In a G3 at Punchestown he was still going well when clattering the 3rd last which took the stuffing out of him but still he was only beaten 5l by Invitation Only who is likely to be near the top of the betting for the JLT/RSA. The last day looks iffy on form however he was never really put into the race, racing in rear he did his job that day in fishing for a mark and wasnt tested against the likes of Monalee, Invitation Only and Al Boum Photo. That did its job as the handicapper has left him on 147. After Gordon Elliots 3rd in the race last year with Noble Endeavour it would be unwise to rule out The Storyteller, however with multiple entries and the major lack of any course form I’m going to leave him for now.
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Last Goodbye; This is a horse I really like the profile of. For me he has everything I want in a Cheltenham Festival hopeful. He definitely progressive having hacked up at the Dublin Racing Festival, he definitely handles Cheltenham more of which I’ll talk about in a second. Firstly, the win last time out in a Grade A handicap was phenomenal. He was given a smart ride by 7lb claimer Adam Short and couldnt have been more impressive in the finish. That was 2m5 and he wasnt stopping. He went up 12lb for that and the English handicapper has added an extra 2lb. Add to the fact he was ridden by a 7lb claimer and more than likely Sean Flanagan will ride, hes basically going to be running off 21lb higher than at Leopardstown. His run last year however in the Close Brothers was absolutely amazing if you watch it back. He was travelling well turning in just a length down on winner and 3rd Tully East and Gold Present. At the 2nd last two horses fall right infront of him and completely stop his stride. Flanagan basically pulls him to a stop, loses 7/8l and starts from scratch. Now its impossible to say where he’d have finished without the interference but the way he flew up the hill was amazing, you really have to watch it to see the full effects of the ground lost and the horses he caught up with after the last. He’s without doubt a massive interest for me with the way he finished the race off last year. He’s unexposed at the trip, he obviously improved loads for the blinkers and tongue tie the last day and he loves the Cheltenham Hill. My two slight nags are that he’s going to be racing off 21lb higher and you’ll probably get bigger than his current price on the day with connections/trainers not being big names.
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(Here you can see the mess Last Goodbye found himself in before absolutely flying up the hill, marked by yellow, making up so many lengths on Powersbomb, red, and Bun Doran, blue.)
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Coo Star Sivola
Nick Williams has a decent enough Cheltenham record considering he has such a small string. 2 runners in the Ultima before with a 2nd and 3rd(Maljima beaten a neck and Reve De Sivola) and he’s had horses perform at Cheltenham festival that come back and do it again. Reve de sivola 2nd Neptune 3rd Ultima and 4th in stayers, Flying tiger won the Fred winter last year. For Non Stop fell at last when 2nd in coral cup, Cornas 4th in Grand Annual , Swinconbe flame 3rd to Quevega in the Mares , James De Vasse 3rd in Coral cup and Diamond Harry 3rd in Neptune.
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CSS Cheltenham form reads 23164324
Festival form; 3rd of 22 off 132 in Fred Winter. 4th of 23 off 138 in Martin Pipe
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Last year he was hammered in the Martin Pipe from a morning price of 20/1 into 13/2 at the off. He loves the place and has been running well in top races this year as well. Early chase form decent but nothing special, behind Movewiththetimes and Finains Oscar in one novice at Cheltenham, then behind Kalondra and finished ahead of Movewiththetimes in another. Was given 135 chase mark which is just below what is required so on trials day he was hammered in the betting as they needed a win but heavy ground not to his liking, staying on 4th behind much proven and soft ground lovers Frodon, Shantou Flyer and Kings Odyssey. Ran last Friday at Exeter and also stepped up in trip. That brought about huge improvement and won in a hack canter over 3m. This is his only handicap entry and with a good rise from that win he’s guaranteed a run now rated 142. He’s unexposed over 3m but always shaped like the trip would suit and festival form unreal with a trainer who gets them ready at Cheltenham.
In last years Martin Pipe, Coo Star Sivola was up there with the pace throughout and did a lot of the donkey work after half way, in the blue/white silks you can see hes one of the first off the bridle after getting outpaced but finds and finds for pressure and really stays up the hill. In the Fred Winter the year before, he again did most of the donkey work before plugging on late after getting outpaced. I think if they ride him quieter than the last two festival runs, with the step up in trip he could really relish that finish.
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Overall, I think that Singlefarmpayment would be extremely dangerous on old form if hes back to his best but after his last 2 runs its a worry. Ibis Du Rheu is a cracking bet at 33s NRNB considering hes much lower than when 12/1 in the race the year before, he’s also a previous festival winner off just 2lb lower. The Storyteller is a danger in whatever race he turns up for, for a trainer who knows the time of day with festival handicaps however the lack of Cheltenham form is the only thing stopping me from selecting him. Last Goodbye has a cracking chance, and the more you watch the finish to his race last year and the way he finished last time out, he could eat up that hill late on but I believe he’s not an antepost bet currently as you will get the same or bigger on the day. Coo Star Sivola was a smash up 20s into 13/2 last year, he’s placed at the last two Cheltenham festivals and from a source who’s had just 2 runners with 2 places in the race before. I simply can’t see him out the frame and I can see him going off sub 10/1 on the day. At 16’s he’s great value and is my main selection.
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My Ultima Top 5
1. Coo Star Sivola 16/1
2. Last Goodbye 16/1
3. The Storyteller 14/1
4. Ibis du Rheu 33/1
5. Singlefarmpayment 10/1
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Advised;
0.5pts ew – Ibis Du Rheu – 33/1 NRNB Bet365 + BetVictor
2pts win – Coo Star Sivola – 16/1*
*when advised on Twitter, now best priced 14/1.
On The Hunt 