NATIONAL HUNT CHASE ANALYSIS
So here we are, 3 weeks until the festival and on the brink of what is to be a crazy few weeks. Preview nights, blogs, podcasts, interviews, panel shows, weight releases, injuries, last minute changes and much more. I personally, will be reviewing certain races over the next few weeks and here I am starting with the 4 miler. I had a look at this the other day and found a lot of weakness in the market in terms of runners and quality so heres my debrief and selections to come.
Firstly we start with the trends;
- 28 of the last 32 winners had finished top 4 in their last race
- 11/12 winners had ran 3/4/5 times that season
- 9/12 were aged 7 or 8
- 5/12 won their last race, 9/12 finished top 3 last time out
- 8/12 had previously ran at Cheltenham in their careers
- 12/12 had 3 or more chase starts
- 7/12 had 5 runs or more over 3m
- 9/12 were rated 130 or higher going into the race
To break some of that down, you dont want an inexperienced horse. You want a horse thats been given a few runs to gain experience, preferably a run at Cheltenham too. You definitely need a proven stayer(duhh!) but more importantly a horse coming into the race off the back of a good run last time out. Experience. Proven stamina. Consistency.
For me this rules a few horses out instantly;
- Sizing Tennesse; too old, he has lots of course form but lacks room for improvement and scope.
- No Comment; 1 run is too little, hes inexperienced and theres doubts about his stamina.
- Bonbon Au Miel; 2 runs, no win over 3m, no course form
- Baden, Pyleonthepressure, Turcagua, Captain Chaos, Three Ways, Western Climate, Woods Well, Ozzy Thomas, Progresss Drive, Clondaw Cian, Pearl Royale and Pickamix are either inexperienced, non stayers or not good enough.
I’ve also ruled out the following horses based on connections quotes/interviews/vibes on targets. Shattered Love, Dinaria Des Obeaux, Keeper Hill, Al Boum Photo, Invitation Only, Black Corton, Rathviden, Moulin A Vent, Ibis DeRheu, Ms Parfois, Barney Dwan and Reigning Supreme.
Theres 2 that look contenders, however have major contenders over their current well being which are Ami Debois and Ballymalin, both coming off terrible last runs. Dounikos and Mossback are both 145-150 Irish stayers however both lack proven stamina with Dounikos not even attempting 3m yet. Livelovelaugh is just a bit meh, hes 138 but hes not that experienced and his stamina isnt that proven so I can leave him too.
This brings to me a final shortlist I can go into more detail with.
Presenting Percy, Mall Dini, Elegant Escape, Jury Duty, Monbeg Notorious, Fagan, Dingo Dollar, Ballydine, Duel at Dawn, Lovely Job, Shades of Midnight.
Shades of Midnight rated 135, recently moved to Sandy Thomson yard and placed on his first run for the yard. Hes has 6 runs over 3m or further so stamina is guaranteed but hes only had 3 chase starts and 0 Cheltenham runs. He’ll more than likely be kept for something up north. Rule out.
Lovely Job, a 138 Rooney-owned gelding trained by Fergal O’Brien. His main downfall is the fact hes only had 2 chase runs however hes progressive with a win last time and has Cheltenham form. Hes amazingly had 8 runs over 3m or more so again stamina is packed however no run since November signals an issue. He would be interesting if he had a spin somewhere before the Festival.
Presenting Percy has top credentials, he stays, hes experienced, hes got brilliant Cheltenham form and hes 157+ however we can be 99% sure he goes RSA. Monbeg Notorious also has experience, pure stamina, little Cheltenham form, and he goes the Irish Grand National. Another two gone.
We’re now left with 5. Dingo Dollar, Duel at Dawn, Fagan, Jury Duty and Elegant Escape.
Elegant Escape isnt a definite runner. Connections think hes a G1 horse and are swinging towards the RSA however at 150, he may not be good enough and should they decide to go here he would have leading credentials. Hes got the experienced in the bag with 5 chase runs already, he won last time out, hes had 2 spins around Cheltenham and all he does is stay stay stay. The slight negative is the fact hes only 6. Hes currently 7/1 NRNB and 10/1 generally, at them prices I can ignore especially with the RSA still hanging there.
Jury Duty. A current 10/1 chance and the likely ride of Jamie Codd. Like Elegant Escape, hes got the experience, hes got the class(148rated) however, looking back through his races I don’t know if its his stamina, or his pace thats the issue. Something in his races forbids him from travelling well 3/4 of the way through the race. He generally loses his positions and the boats on late. Hes definitely got stamina in his weaponary but has he got the pace in a Festival race to keep up mid race? In the Florida Pearl he was pushed along much before Shattered Love, with that rival travelling much much better but just getting outstayed by Jury Duty in the end. At Christmas he seemed one paced as well and last time at Naas, he traded very short in running when beating by Moulin A Vent who was just faster late on, again highlighting Jury Dutys one paced nature. At 10/1 I can leave although hes a very solid place option.
Now we get down to the interesting stuff. Fagan, trained by Elliot who won the race in 2017, 2015 and 2011. He’s a horse thats always screamed out 4m and hes almost got every box ticked. He has brilliant Cheltenham form when 2nd in the Albert Bartlett to Uknowwhatimeanharry. He’s a big boat of a horsw who went 3m on his second hurdle start after winning 3 point-to-points. He’s still unexposed with just 8 starts over the obstacles under rules. His last run which was at Cheltenham is interesting because he wasnt given a hard ride, maybe a sighter, and he finished 2nd just 10l behind Black Corton who is now a multiple Graded winner. He’s been given a very similar prep to 2017 winner Tiger Roll who ran in the exact same Cheltenham Novice, and was but away from October until the Festival. Tiger Roll was kept away from bad ground with one aim in mind and I think Fagan is the same with 3 early chase starts to gain experience. Hes had 6 p2p runs so he doesnt lack jumping inexperience at all. Tiger Roll didnt have that so had 10 chase starts before being put away from October. I cant really see a negative with Fagan. He stays forever, hes always wanted further than 3m too. He jumps sound. Hes 147 rated so definitely able to handle himself against classier types but has that brutal stayer in him that the likes of Minella Rocco have. He’s currently available at 14/1 NRNB or 16/1 without that safety net and I rate that a solid bet. He has everything in his favour as long as you trust Gordon Elliot to have him there primed on the day which is what he did with Tiger Roll, and has done with Cause of Causes before at Cheltenham.
Two to go(kudos if you’re still ready and haven’t just skipped to the bottom).
Duel at Dawn. A horse with ‘un sexy’ connections. No Elliot or Mullins, no JP or Gigginstown but you can sure that with this horse theres been 1 race, and 1 race only in mind. After Duel at Dawn won over 3m at Exeter in a Novice Chase, trainer Alex Hales said the following
“I said when we bought the horse, I’d really like to run him in the 4 miler at Cheltenham in 2018. That was our long term plan, probably not realistic but its what we aimed for. Everything last year was looking after him for this year chasing”.
Well Alex Hales, it’s very realistic now. Just 4 hurdle runs last year, three times over 3m including a 3rd place in G2, he outstayed Blue Rambler in a novice with just two runners. Blue Rambler was the 1/16 favourite amd Duel at Dawn simply outstayed him smartly. Anyway, back to chasing, he’s been given a decent campaign with the 4 miler in mind and although not tested at the highest level has been competitive enough in decent races. He needed the run first start back when 2nd at Chepstow but improved a fair bit to win a 3 runner affair at Exeter beating two classier and higher rated horses. He simply grinded it out and outstayed them. He then went onto Cheltenham where he gave away a 5lb penalty to the field and a mistake late on let Sizing Tennesse take advantage. Both horses stayed on strongly to the line and that was impressive from Duel at Dawn given he was giving weight and made an error. At least we know he handles the hill and the track.
His final start was in a handicap listed chase at Wawrick in decent enough field. He was 2nd again but ‘boated’ on as per against a rival with too much speed in Ms Parfois. The form is exceptional as Ms Parfois was raised 14lb and finish 2nd to Black Corton in a G2 this weekend. The 3rd at Wawrick, Big River came out and bolted up at Kelso in a conditions race beating 153 horse Shantou Flyer, albeit getting a little weight. At this stage I think even 3m is probably too short for Duel at Dawn against classier types like Ms Parfois so the run so of a high enough standard. Cheltenham form? Tick. Stays forever? Tick. Experience? Tick. Trained for the race, bought for the race, primed for the race? Tick. And guess what price? 40/1 NRNB with Bet365. He’s 40/1 with 3/4 other firms too and 33s if you bet elsewhere
And we’re not even on to #1!
DINGO DOLLAR!
Now before the horse, let me talk about the trainer. Alan King loves a NH Chase runner. Since 2008 his form in the race is 1st, PU, PU, 11th, 9th, U, 3rd, 1st, 5th, 6th.
10 runs. 2 wins. 2 places. His horses have been sent off short prices for this race too with 2008 winner Old Benny going off 9/1. 2013 3rd Godsmejudge a 7/1 chance. 2014 winner Midnight Prayer 8/1. Sego Success a well backed 9/2 fav when 5th in 2015. Alan King also has a very shrewd way of training his 4 milers and that is to give them early experience and then a break and prime them for the day. All of his runners that ran well(1st, 3rd, 1st, 5th, 6th) all had between 3-5 runs. Midnight Prayer(1st 2014) had 3 early runs between Oct-Dec and then given a break until a prep run in February. His 2015 5th Sego Success had 2 runs in Oct/Nov with a break until January where he prepped. In 2016 he had 33/1 shot Kerrow place 6th after 2 runs in early December, a break until late January and onto Cheltenham. Dingo Dollar has followed that same path. He had 3 runs in 63 days between Oct-Dec then given a break until 8th Feb where he won a nice 3m novice chase at Doncaster. His win in December when battering a good field in a handicap by 15lengths suggest he doesn’t find the trip a problem, nor big fields. Hes been well backed both his last 2 starts when going off favourite suggesting yard confidence and his run style suggest any further distance would just improve him. All of Kings previous 10 runners came into Cheltenham rated between 127-139. Dingo Dollar is currently 143 so would be King’s highest rated to run in it. He’s progressive, hes got experience, he stays proper and is brilliant on a sounder surface. The one nag is he’s never ran at Cheltenham but we can’t all be perfect! With Alan Kings record in the race, his approach to the race and the fact that Dingo Dollar has followed a similar path means he’s almost a certain runner. He’s Kings only entry and with the trip maybe bringing out more improvement, I think he could be Alan Kings 3rd National Hunt Chase winner. I couldn’t believe the prices available on this horse. He’s 14s with one particular firm NRNB, 16s with others but a monstrous 33/1 with 5 different bookmakers.
Top 5.
5) Jury Duty 12/1
4) Elegant Escape 11/1
3) Fagan 16/1
2) Duel at Dawn 40/1
1) Dingo Dollar 33/1
Advised;
1pt ew – Duel at Dawn 40/1 with Bet365 NRNB
1pt ew – Dingo Dollar 33/1 with BetVictor, Unibet, Sporting Bet, 888sport.
On The Hunt 