EASTER SUNDAY TIPS

From 11 selections on Saturday, Qaysar won at 5/4 with William Of Orange also winning at 8/1. Time to Study was an unlucky 2nd in the Queens Cup at Musselburgh considering the field let Brandon Castle slip 20 lengths clear turning in. Crievehill also finished second just failing to give 22lb to Ambler Gambler.

Fairyhouse

2.20
SHAR WHATS THERUSH 9/1

A competitive handicap with the big owners well represented but I fancy one from a smaller yard in the shape of Shar Whats Therush. He fell last time out but was leading at the last and has been given a 4lb rise for that. the form of that race is very strong with the eventual winner Sir Carno winning off 106 now rated 123 and the second Danse Way rated 90, now 101 after winning twice. He’s still unexposed in handicaps and has plenty of improvement in him especially when carrying just 10st off bottom weight in this field.

 

3.20
SCARPETA 4/1

A competitive graded novice hurdle with four of these running at the Cheltenham Festival. Blow by Blow was a mega impressive winner of the Martin Pipe but he carries a penalty here and I favour Mullins’ Scarpeta. He was very inexperienced going into the Ballymore and was involved in the action early at the head of the race, something that was a big negative over the first few days of the festival. He still managed to finish 4th at 33/1 beaten 8l by Samcro, finishing ahead of stablemate Duc De Geneviries who turns up here too. He’s battle hardened from the flat with Mark Johnston so won’t mind a scrap and with just 1lb splitting the top 3 it could be a tight finish.

 

3.55
BON PAPA 5/1

A horse that has been messed about with trips wise running between 2m and 3m and anywhere in between however I definitely feel the shorter trips suit him best. He didn’t stay when 3rd behind JLT winner Shattered Love and Jury Duty and last time out was out of his depth in G1 company behind a high class field in the Flogas. Rathviden won the 4m, Monalee was 2nd in the RSA, Al Boum Photo fell when 3rd in the RSA and most importantly The Storyteller won the Brown plate off 147. Bon Papa has been given 139 and back down to 2m1f I suspect he will prove better than that mark. This handicap isn’t filled with quality so he could just prove ahead of his mark against weaker opponents.

 

4.30
SATURNAS 20/1

One of the outsiders in this top class G1, he’s completely unexposed compared to some of these with just the two chase starts. He was beaten by a race for Avenue du Vie on chase debut but made no mistake when winning next time out. He’s already a G1 winner over hurdles and in two runs at Fairyhouse has finished 1st and 2nd(in a G1 to Arlie Beach). He was sent off a very well backed 5/4fav in the Deloitte when having trouble and PU. I think there’s a few negatives on the others, Al Boum Photo has fallen twice already over fences, Up For Review surely wants a trip, Invitation Only had a nightmare in the JLT and Montalbano has failed to complete in 3/4 chase starts. He may struggle to give 7lb to the mare Shattered Love but I can see him outrunning his odds.

 

5.05
YUKON LIL 7/1

Yukon Lil, owned by the powerful connections of Coolmore, interestingly have a number of horses in training with Willie Mullins this season. Two were entered in this Sales Bumper but it’s the €65,000 Flemensfirth filly Yukon Lil that’s been left in at declaration stage. Ridden by Katie Walsh, Yukon Lil is out of Dare to Doubt who was a smart mare herself when trained by Willie Mullins. Winner of two bumpers, she placed in the listed Aintree bumper and went on to gain black-type over hurdles and fences rated 146. From that sort of pedigree, Yukon Lil should have no issue in landing a bumper soon rather than later and with the ground so testing, she should relish it being out of Flemensfirth.

———————-

Ffos Las / Plumpton

4.00
NEVER EQUALLED 7/2

Form at Ffos Las reads 4143136 with wins coming off 122 in a handicap and a novice hurdle. He’s now off 124 with Sean Houlihan taking an extra 5 off with his claim and clearly likes it round the track. It’s a very weak race with Padge probably the biggest danger, he’s a high class horse slipping down the weights but needs to show something of a form revival before he’s of interest.

 

3.45
REMULLIC 9/2

A superb handicapper for the Chris Gordon team with top weight to carry here but as the standard of horse goes, he’s far clear here. 2nd in the Ladbroke to Old Guard, 5th in the Betfair behind Kalashnikov, 2nd in a handicap chase to Saint Calvados and 2nd in the County behind Mohaayed, he’s a handicap specialist and despite the top weight should outclass this field.

5.10
GRANARD 4/5

For me this is a certainty, just the 3 runners with his two rivals rated 107 and 127 but Savoy Court is 1 from 6 over hurdles with only a handicap win to his name. Granard has only ran in a bumper when outpaced but his form in p2p reads well, with a 2nd splitting Marley Firth(124 for Skelton) and Chito Balko(138 for McCain). The winner of his bumper actually ran in the Champion Bumper so is well thought of and stepping up to 2m6f on hurdles debut I’d be shocked if he didn’t win this getting 6lb off Savoy Court.

 

————————–

CORK

2.00
TORCELLO 5/1

A pretty smart flat horse for Andrew Balding hitting a rating of 93 when running in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket. He was progressive on the flat winning 3/7 so can definitely win a maiden hurdle as weak and this. He was having his first run for 5months when beaten 27l on hurdle debut but surely will improve for the run and experience. The favourite Parks Paddocks is rated 112 and id be shocked if Torcello wasn’t able to match or better than at some stage over hurdles.

 

4.05
MIDNIGHT STROLL 8/1
SPADES AND TRUMPS 9/2

With 5 places on offer in this competitive 0-145 handicap it’s worth having a few darts. Midnight Stroll has been competitions in top handicaps for Robert Tyner and a first time hood on this son of Midnight Legend will help him settle. He was 4th not beaten far in a hot Xmas handicap when coming late and was then we’ll beaten the last day in the Coral Hurdle, that doesn’t tell the full story however as he was very keen and pulled himself up the field early, he was tanking turning in when hitting the front but completely emptied and made a mistake at the last. Hopefully the hood and a quieter ride will allow him to show how well handicapped he is.

The second selection is Spades and Trumps for Gavin Cromwell and Barry Geraghty. He’s potentially well treated off 130 considering that he beat Paloma Blue in a maiden hurdle who ended up 4th in the Supreme. He made his debut when 3rd behind Early Doors who himself finished 3rd in the Martin Pipe rated 142. It was a tough task on his third start giving 6lb to the progressive Riders OnThe Storm who went on to finish 2nd in a listed race and is now 132. Geraghty goes to Cork for two handicap rides rather than riding in the Graded action at Fairyhouse and I’m hoping Cromwell/JP have targeted him for something like this considering the 50k prize money.

Easter Saturday

KEMPTON

3.10
QAYSAR 4/5

This €200,000 son of Choisor finished 2nd on debut at Newmarket last October and the form is very strong as expected of a Newmarket maiden. The 6th, 8th and 14th all placed next time, the 3rd Masaarr won by 5l next time and the 5th finished 2nd to Qaysar when he won at Kempton. On that day Qaysar was a very well backed 1/2fav and won with a bit in hand, again the form is strong with the 6th and 8th winning since. He carries a penalty in novice company but the race isn’t that strong and I suspect they’re giving him another educational run before stepping up in class and he should take all the beating.

4.20
ARAB MOON 6/1

A proper Kempton specialist with form figures of 1112, those were from draws 4, 10, 11 & 8 so being drawn in 11 will be no bother especially with Luke Morris booked. He won on this card last season too and his course form should put him bang there.

 

4.55
SOLAR FLAIR 9/1

Another one of Williams Knights, this time ridden by Andrea Atzeni who’s 6 from 23(26%) for the yard on the AW. Solar Flair is another will good Kempton form, 6212. He’s ran at this meeting for the last 2 years finishing a head second and a nose second so is desperately unlucky not have another win or two at the course. Hopefully he can make it third time lucky at this meeting and this is a weaker race than his last two in which he was 6th in a group 3 at Newcastle and finished 8th in the Stewards Cup.

---

CHELMSFORD / CORK

8.45 Chelmsford
IM WAITING 13/2

A very interesting runner for shrewd Irish trainer Anthony McCann and Fran Berry is an eye catching booking. His form doesn’t stand out but there’s one run from October that reads well, a 4th over course and distance last time he was in England when rated 57. He’s now 55 and considering he was only beaten 2l by two horses who have won since, Navajo Star was 45(he’s now 64) and Thankyou Very Much was 55(now 58, with three 2nds and a win) he’s got the potential to win this sort of race.

 

3.55 Cork
SHAPES 11/10

I wasn’t originally going to select this horse expecting short odds but having opened up 11/10 I think it’s a right bet. Ger Lyon has started the season in very good form and had a well backed maiden winner at Naas last weekend and despite this filly being beaten twice it was by far streets ahead of anything in this field. On debut she finished behind Actress and Alpha Centurai and again finished behind them two when 3rd in a listed race. Her maiden form stands out a mile. 1st Alpha Centurai (109), 2nd Actress(106), 3rd Shapes, 4th Yulong Gold Fairy(99) and 5th Now You’re Talking(106). I would be gobsmacked if this was beaten.

 

5.05 Cork
SWEET COMPANY 9/1

Landed a massive punt at Galway a few years back when ridden by Nina Carberry and hasn’t been disgraced in handicaps since. He was only beaten a length off 81 at Cork over 1m2f last year so running here off 74 over 1m1f should be fine, he stays further which is important in testing conditions and considering it’s an amateurs race, having such a good jockey such as Oison Orr is crucial. He’s definitely well handicapped off this mark but with the Tony Martin stable you never know when the day is.

---

 

HAYDOCK

2.05
CRIEVEHILL 5/2

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the last two renewals of this middle distance chase finale and saddles the favourite here. A very progressive hurdler including a very good 3rd behind G1 animals Neon Wolf and Elgin in the Supreme trial last year. His chase career so far has been a little hit and miss but he has bumped into very well handicapped horses in Cyrname, Bigmatre and Drumcliff. His form at Haydock is 322 and looks to have a strong favourites chance after hacking up by 20l last time out at Sandown. He got given a 9lb rise for that up to 138 but he was rated similar over hurdles so there should be more to come.

 

2.40
WILLIAM OF ORANGE 8/1

Donald McCain has had a fantastic season and this can continue with dual course winner William Of Orange winning this 2m handicap hurdle finale. He was fourth in this race last year off 113 beaten only 3 and a half lengths but the way he’s been campaigned suggests this has been the aim all season. He was given a 3 month break from the start of December until reappearing in a jumpers bumper at the start of this month to blow the cobwebs away. He’s off 118 this year however the jockey claims 5 to bring his weight down to the same as what he raced off last year and the significant thing this year is that he’s also had a wind operation. I think this has been the aim all year and can see him going very close.

 

3.15
BEHIND TIME 5/1

Barry Geraghty has just one ride on the card before going over to Ireland for the Fairyhouse festival and Behind Time looks a very progressive staying chaser. He’s a massive monster of a horse towering over everything else last time out at Uttoxeter but in first time cheek pieces jumped like a stag, travelled well and won with plenty in hand despite idling late. Fry is 9 from 28(32%) when teaming up with Barry Geraghty and this big unit of a horse is progressive well and if the cheek pieces have the same effect as last time out he could improve into the better handicaps and possibly nationals next year.

---

 

MUSSELBURGH

3.00
BREAKING RECORDS 10/1
&
AYUTTHAYA 4/1

Two selections in this race for me as I can’t split them, id be gutted if one of them won without being on and think they’re pretty well handicaps horses in a race of this nature. Breaking Records comes from the Hugo Palmer yard who’s only two runners at the course have finished 1st and 4th. Josephine Gordon is also 2/5 at the track so it’s a formidable partnership. Breaking Records has ran four times over 7f but has shaped like further would suit especially when last time out finishing well because a pacey Godolphin type. His first start in a handicap off 83 could be lenient. The second selection is the favourite Ayutthaya, he’s potentially the group horse in a handicap after his form last year. He finished second on his first two starts behind Lisheen Castle, rated 95 and Elarqam, rated 112. He then bolted up in a Chester novice and has been given a handicap mark of 86 and again the step up to 1m should suit on pedigree and how he races. Kevin Ryan will have aimed him for an early handicap before going onto better things.

 

3.35
TIME TO STUDY 5/1

A super impressive winner of the Edinburgh Cup over course and distance last season when a very well backed 15/8 favourite. Off 102 there’s definite room for improvement at just 4 years of age he could be one to progress into group company later in the year. Winner of the Edinburgh Cup, the Mallard at Doncaster and winning a conditions staked he kept improving last year. He’s so tough and game in front and has gone well fresh before. Johnston can get them ready first time out and after such an impressive win last year here, this has been an obvious first target. I imagine if he gets to the rail and gets the lead he would be very hard to pass if fit enough.

Good luck!

NAP
3.15 BEHIND TIME 5/1

NB
3.00 AYUTTHAYA 4/1

CHELTENHAM DAY 4 PREVIEW

Friday

TRIUMPH HURDLE

I’ve been taking on the short price favourites all week, however this is one I just can’t see beaten. I’ve tried to take her on all year but she’s got her perfect conditions here and the race has cut up. Apples Shakira is 3/3 over course and distance and 3/3 on soft/heavy. That’s already a huge swing in her favour over 2^nd fav Redicean whos 3/3 at flat track Kempton and 3/3 on good/soft. Most front runners this week have ended up out the back of the telly, especially in the novice races. Horses like First Flow, Saint Calvados, Black Corton, La Bague Au Roi, Special Tiara and others who have made the running have finished nowhere. This is a huge negative for Stormy Ireland and possibly a few others. Apples Shakira will be dropped in, finally getting a proper pace to aim at and even though she’s likely to hit a flat spot similar to Altiors, there’s no doubt she’ll be coming up the hill better than most and with ground soft/heavy, that helps too. I can’t have her beaten.

Apples Shakira 3pts @ 2/1

COUNTY HURDLE

Probably the most difficult race of the week the figure out. If you followed my antepost blogs then you’ll know I’m on two at big prices. Chesterfield is an Aintree festival winner, and won the Scottish County off the same mark as today. He’s been running in top races in conditions not ideal. Unfortunately the rain has come which is a negative, but he’s fit and well after a win in a bumper two weeks ago. He’s available at 33/1 with Betway still and I do think he’s well handicapped. The other is Lagostovegas for leading trainer Willie Mullins. This mare has done nothing but improve since moving to him and she’s used to big fields after running twice at Galway, finishing 3^rd in the Cesarwitch and then winning an 11 runner handicap. That day she beat David’s Charm who subsequently won a graded handicap, and that leaves her well in. She was given a break before a prep in a graded race last time when looking under cooked. She’ll be primed for this and think she will make the frame at least. The ground has gone against Flying Tiger, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Le Richebourg and Tigris River. Sandsend is at the head of the market and I’d worry about his experience, this could be too much too soon and A Hare breathe probably wants better ground too. Two horses I will take punts on at huge prices are Divin Bere and Ben Dundee. Elliot landed the Fred Winter with his outsider and could do the same here, he’s only had 4 runs for Elliot, the first of which landing a massive gamble on his first run. He was then well backed again but could only manage 6^th beaten 4l when impeded in the home run. He then ran in a 13 runner handicap finishing 2^nd, when there was 6l back to third, he just bumped into one that day. He has experience in big field handicaps and hopefully Davy is back to ride and bury him in. I can see him making the frame and slicing through the field late on. The other is Paul Nicholls Divin Bere, 2^nd at last years festival off 139 in the Fred Winter, he since finished a very close 2^nd to Defi De Seuil at Aintree. He was rated 148 after that, and in 2 runs this year(G3 handicap at Ascot and Betfair Hurdle) he’s dropped to a mark of 141 just 2lb higher than last year. He’s not a guarantee to handle the ground but he’s unexposed and could have been saved for this.

Lagostovegas – 1.5pts ew @ 25/1 – ANTEOPST

Chesterfield – 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 – ANTEPOST

Ben Dundee – 0.5pt ew @ 20/1 (with firms 6 places)

Divin Bere – 0.5pt ew @ 33/1 (with firms 6 places)

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

Another of my antepost selections, Chef Des Obeaux runs and I can see why he’s now favourite over Santini. Santini is less experienced and despite beating CDO first time out, CDO went off favourite and has since improved tonnes for the step up in trip and soft ground. He gets perfect conditions here and I think it’s hard to see him being out of the frame with Noel Fehily aboard. There’s a few at bigger prices that are dour stayers such as Enniscoffey Oscr, Talkischeap and Callett Mad, and the classy horses such as Ballyward, Santini and Ok Corral. One of those, ok Corral has always had a huge reputation, he was beaten just 2l in a Punchestown bumper by Yorkhill and after winning his maiden hurdle was ruled out with injury. He made his come back when beaten just half a length by stablemate Whatswrongwithyou trying to give that horse weight, he’s since bolted up and finished 3^rd in the Imperial Cup boosting the form. Ok Corral stepped up the 2m5f and absolutely hacked up, he’s now been supplemented for the race and is unexposed at the trip. There can be questions over his stamina considering he’s not ran the trip before but he wasn’t stopping last time and being by Mahler out of a Flemensfirth mare he will handle trip and ground. Chef Des Obeaux is still my main fancy though and I think he has everything in his favour to run a massive race.

Chef Des Obeaux – 1pt @ 6/1 ANTEPOST

Ok Corral – 0.5pt ew @ 12/1

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

What a race! Firstly I’m ruling out Kilulltagh Vic, Saphr Du Rheu, Double Shuffle, Anibale Fly, Tea for Two and Outlander either on the basis of ground, jumping or course form. Edwulf would be a great story but I find it hard to see him backing up that run again. Total Recall is aiming for the National, American is probably not top top class, Djakadam is not the horse he was and Minella Rocco needs 7m. Bachasson is interesting, unexposed at the trip and is progressive but I don’t know if a real 3m2f slog is what he wants and he’d be more interesting in the Ryanair. Native River I have doubts about how well he handles the course, he’s been a mess twice now coming down the hill and seems better at Newbury or other flat tracks. Our Duke is too short after being hammered in after Presenting Percys win, if his jumping comes together he’s a massive danger but it’s let him down enough for me to leave him at 5/1. This leaves me with Might Bite, Road to Respect and Definitely Red. Road to Respect really didn’t want the rain, with slight questions over stamina already, he’s much better on a sounder surface as shown with last years handicap win. He’s had the perfect prep, he’s progressive and he’s unexposed and on good ground he’d be a big bet for me. I’m still backing him as he’s drifted to a decent enough price with 4 places on offer. Might Bite obviously has the course question to overcome, he’s hung badly twice when ahead and I’m sure Nico will ride him quieter with a late move required. He’s “this seasons horse” but how impressive have his runs been this year? He’s had 2 runs, both of which form wise aren’t great. The horse he beat last time a few lengths is 100/1 for this race. The form horse, ground lover, course winner and dour stayer is Definitely Red. He showed last time out that he handles Cheltenham when hacking up on heavy in the Cotswolds. He’s been kept fresher this season with just 3 runs in 5 months/ He’s a dour stayer, sent off near favourite for the Grand National and his form on heavy or soft is sensational., 11121P21221U1311. As long as the last race didn’t take too much out of him he won’t be out of the top 3.

Definitely Red – 2pts ew @ 12/1 (4 places firms)

Road To Respect – 0.5pt ew @ 14/1 (4 places firms)

FOXHUNTERS CHASE

Not a popular race for many but one of the biggest betting heats being so close to the Gold Cup. I’ll keep this quiet simple after long previews of the other races. Burning Ambition could be anything, 6/7 in P2P and hunter chases he couldnt have been more impressive at Limerick. He’s a brilliant jumper, handles all ground and travels with immense talent. The last day he loomed upside Grade 1 quality horse in Gilgamboa and being on soft ground, favouring Gilgamboa, he was just outstayed by that horse who’s a dour stayer. He probably needs to be delivered late but he’s been given a massive jockey upgrade with Jamie Codd. He’s currently 7/2 but could go off much shorter if the Irish pile their Samcro and Laurina money in. The each way selection is Wonderful Charm who finished a close up 2^nd in this last year, he’s been primed for another go and Nicholls’ has said it’s his best chance of the meeting. Foxrock has been sick as a parrot every time he’s ran at Cheltenham including when a big gamble for the four miler. I’d worry about him travelling and handling the course.

Burning Ambition – 2pt @ 7/2

Wonderful Charm – 0.5pt ew @ 13/2 (4 place firms)

MARTIN PIPE HANDICAP HURDLE

Another fiercly competitive handcicap and tricky puzzle to solve. A few darts at big prices is the way I’m attacking this race. There’s no doubts that Flawless Escape, Dies des Bieffes and Deal D’estruval are horses that catch the eye, but you need a lot of luck especially when it’s a conditional riders race. The most experienced jockeys are ones to look for, the likes of Donagh Meyler, James Bowen, Bryony Frost and Donal McInerney etc. Gordon Elliot is always desperate to win the race and lines up a few for his old bosses race. Blow by Blow and Sire du Berlais are two I’m drawn too and both have good chances. Blow by Blow was favourite for the Neptune when trained by Willie Mullins but had an injury hat ruled him out. He’s not been the most impressive on first few runs for Elliot but you can imagine they’ve had something like this in mind.144 is no easy mark but he’s the potential graded horse in the field and connections won with Champagne Classic last year. JP owns Sire du Berlais also trained by Elliot and for me is one of the best handicapped horses in training, the only worry is the bounce. His 3^rd in a listed event behind Ciloas Emery and Mick Jazz looks phenominal, Mick Jazz is 158 and finished 3^rd in the Champion Hurdle and Cilaos Emery won a G1 novice at Punchestown beating Champion Hurdle 2^nd Melon and is now 153. It was Sire Du Berlais’ first run in this country for Elliot and the ground wont be an issue. Off 144 he could be well treated. He supports a first time tongue tie and gets the services of Donal McInerney. The final horse is Brelan Das for Nicholls/Frost, he bolted up at Wincanton over hurdles and has since gone chasing with no success, he’s been beaten miles but comes back over hurdes with an eyecatching jockey booking.

Blow by Blow – 0.5pt ew @ 14/1

Sire du Berlais – 1pt ew @ 10/1

Brelan Das – 0.25pt ew @ 33/1 (all 5 place firms)

GRAND ANNUAL

There’s no doubt that Vaniteux, North Hill Harvey and Dont Touch It are plot jobs for this, but theyre too short and have questions over attitude in some cases. With this being such a unique test it’s better to look at more experienced big field horses that have Cheltenham form especially in this race. Horses like Eastlake, Rock The World, Dandridge etc have ran well multiple times before and it’s two of them that I like. Rock The World was 2^nd two years ago and won the race last year, he’s a specialist in this race and has since been bought by JP McManus with this race in mind, he’s been campaigned with Cheltenham in mind again and I can’t see him out of the frame. Eastlake is definitely exposed, he’s been beaten in this race off 147(6^th), 145(2^nd), 143(9^th) and 154(10^th). However he’s only been beaten 13l, 11l, 4l and 12l in those races. The interesting angle into him is that he’s recently had a wind operation and he gets the services of young conditional Jonjo O’Neill who claims 7lb. That means he runs off 140 which is easily the lowest mark he’s come into this race. He’s won plenty of times at Cheltenham before and should be bang there.

Rock The World – 1pt ew @ 20/1 (5 place firms)

Eastlake – 1pt ew @ 33/1 (5 place firms)

CHELTENHAM DAY 3 PREVIEW

Thursday

JLT Novices’ Chase

Invitation Only is a huge fancy for me. Modus is just not G1 standard for me, Benetar is more than likely better on flat tracks and left handed, Finians Oscar has more questions over him than a pub quiz and Terrefort I can’t have either. Henderson was downbeat on his chances last time out and although he won nicely, I don’t think the 2^nd Cyrname would finish in the top 5/6 here. Invitation Only has ran in the best novice staying chase this season, the Flogas at Leopardstown. The form could get a boost if Dounikos, Al Boum Photo or Monalee run well/win the RSA on Wednesday. Willie has a sublime record in the race, form of 11F134FUF15. 4 wins from 7 renewals. Owner Graham Wylie has supplied the last two winners in Yorkhill and Black Hercules too. The trip is absolutely perfect at 2m4, considering last time he just seemed to faulter in the final part of the race behind Monalee. Ruby Walsh is obviously a massive plus too and being by Flemensfirth he should be fine on the ground.

Invitation Only – 5pts @ 3/1

PERTEMPS HANDICAP HURDLE

A brutal 26 runner handicap but shockingly, I can’t see past the favourite. Glenloe has the potential to be a smash up job for Elliot and JP and its worth taking ew prices while you can with 6/7 places on offer. He’s so lightly raced, with maiden runs behind Monalee, The Storyteller etc when given the usual lenient treatment from jockeys. He was 5^th in a Pertemps qualifier last year but was only rated 127 so failed to get in. His whole campaign has been built around this race, on his first start this year he split Oscar Knight and Diamond Cauchois. Diamond Cauchois bolted up next time and won a G2 and went from 126 to 145(+19lb). Oscar Knight has since been 2^nd to Total Recall at the Dublin Festival and went from 116 to 136(+20lb). Glenloe is now only 137 from 127(+10lb) meaning he should have near 10lb in hand. He was then 2^nd in a Grade B handicap hurdle and after reaching a mark worthy of getting in, his next run was in a Pertemps qualifier when the biggest non trier, travelled so well, taken 5/6 wide by the jockey and finished a lovely 3^rd, he wasn’t given a hard race and he’s totally unexposed. Thomas Campbell is a small saver bet, some brilliant course form, handles the ground, Bowen knows him well and he gets blinkers for the first time. 155 is hard to win off but at 25s I can take the chance as classier horses have been winning festival handicaps off top weight recently.

Glenloe – 1.5pts ew @ 7/1

Thomas Campbell 0.5pts ew @ 25/1

RYANAIR CHASE

Not a race I have a strong opinion on with only 6 runners. Antepost I fancied Balko Des Flos ew but thats gone now with ew terms at only 1-2. I definitely want to take on UDS. His two wins this season have been dominating against very little, a win at Cork on unraceable ground and last time beating a handicapper in Speredek. His last 4 runs have been ran to 171, 167, 167 and 168. Balkos last 4 runs, winning the Galway Plate off 146, before two efforts in open company at the start of the season and then finishing 3^rd in the Lexus behind Gold Cup Road to Respect. In 4 runs his rating has risen from 146 to 166 and theres room for more improvement. He’s on an upwards curve whereas UDS is just what he is, a very solid G1 horse but vulnerable to an improver. I also worry about last years race when he looked very tired over the last and up the run, but the race was so weak that nothing got to him. I’ll still take the chance on Balko des Flos, but win only, and possibly lay UDS when the betting for ‘not to win’ comes out tomorrow.

Balko des Flos – 1pt @ 8/1

STAYERS HURDLE

Originally I liked Supersundae for the race on spring ground, but on this tacky ground I’d have slight doubts over him staying. Ruby has chosen Bacardys and that means Penhill has drifted, but he didn’t ride Penhill last year either when he won the Albert Bartlett. Sam Spinner is progressive, with two dominating front running wins recently but on Tuesday of the festival, horses that made the running generally finished well beaten. With negatives over Yanworth, The New One, Lami Serge and others, I’m going to look at some big prices to take a few punts on. No Willie Mullins horse should be 40/1, but that’s what Augusta Kate is. Sent off 7/2 for the Champion Bumper, and 11/2 for last years Albert Bartlett, she is clearly held in high regard. She made a bad mistake late on in the Albert Bartlett but still finished 6^th and then won the Mares final at Fairyhouse when looking a proper stayer. She’s had 3 runs over 2m4 since behind Apples Jade and last time out finished 2^nd to Presenting Percy over 3m, with Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond Cauchois behind.

Augusta Kate – 0.5pts ew @ 40/1

BROWN ADVISORY PLATE

Kings Odyssey finished 3^rd last time out, but the form is very interesting. He split Shantou Flyer(2^nd) and Coo Star Sivola(4^th). They finished 1-2 in the Ultima on Tuesday finishing a mile clear of the rest and the winner Frodon goes for the Ryanair earlier on in the card. His Cheltenham form is very solid, 1F0333, his win came off a mark of 139 on heavy going over course and distance. His last run was off 139 over course and distance and tomorrow, he runs on soft/heavy off 139 over course and distance. The slight doubt is that he was well beaten last year in this race, however it was genuine good ground and he was off 145 last year. At 33/1 he’s a great bet for me. I would have doubts about how well The Storyteller will stay, and how much The Last Goodbye and Tully East will like the ground. They both have very good festival form and are dangers. The complete unknown is David Pipe’s, King’s Socks. He’s had one run in this country when 3^rd to Modus and given a very easy ride after 607 days off, and the run before that he was 2l behind Arkle winner Footpad in a G1 juvenile hurdle at Auteuil. His form in France is solid, he will handle the ground and there’s rarely a festival without a clever plot from the Pipe yard.

Kings Odyssey – 1pt ew @ 33/1

Kings Socks – 1pt ew @ 9/1

MARES NOVICES’ HURDLE

Laurina is banker material no doubt and will be for many. Absolutely deadly so far including in a G2 last time and her forms been boosted too. I took on Altior, Apples Jade and Samcro so I’m going to again. I’m also taking on the 2^nd favourite Marias Benefit who’s had pretty easy leads the last time and wont have been around Cheltenham before. Two small plays each way, the first on Cap Soleil who will love conditions. She’s 5/6 with her only defeat coming against Dame Rose who had a fairly easy lead. She won in brutal conditions last time and showed her grittiness and that will stand her in good stead in these conditions. The other is Salsaretta, who is very highly though of and was long time favourite for the race. She’s coming here without a run so they must think a lot of her and the field isn’t that strong anyway.

Salsretta – 0.5pt ew @ 16/1

Cap Soleil – 1pt ew @ 14/1

KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE

A very tough 23 runner handicap, for Amateur riders. Favourites Mall Dini and Squouateur ran in the race last year, both beaten after making errors, they’ve been “handicap plots” for ages now and at 5/1 I can look elsewhere. Sugar Baron for Henderson has bumper winner Katie Walsh aboard, and although he’s not guaranteed to go on the ground, his profile fits the race. 7^th in the race last year, he was then beaten just 2l in the Sandown Gold Cup, and was 2^nd in the Amateurs race here in November beaten half a length. He’s not had many chase starts and is more of a man this year than last and can improve on last years run. Band of Blood is one to love the ground, with a few runs on bad ground in Ireland to his name, and his win the other week for Richard Newland. He’s been 4^th in an Irish National and is guranteed to stay more than others. The last is Heron Heights at a massive 80/1, he’s already won at Cheltenham in a novice chase and was deemed good into to run in the RSA vs Might Bite. Off 137 he was 3^rd in a Grade B handicap at the Punchestown festival and also ran in the Galway Plate. After a 187 day break, he finished midfield at Leopardstown and that was such a pipe opener for something like this. He’s coming into this race Fresh and off 135 he can be dangerous with Liam Quinlan aboard.

Heron Heights – 0.5pt ew @ 80/1

Band of Blood – 0.5pt ew @ 12/1

Sugar Baron – 1pt ew @ 12/1

CHELTENHAM DAY 2 PREVIEW

Wednesday

Ballymore Novices Hurdle

It’s not very original, but the top 4/5 in the market are the ones I like. Sometimes if you look too hard, you miss the obvious and the clear one to look at first is Samcro. He could be anything but Yanworth and Denman were beaten at odds on in this race and over 2m5 it would persuade me to look elsewhere. Vision Des Flos showed why connections paid 350k for him last time out but it was a terrible race for the class on terrible ground and he looked flattered. I’d worry it was a one off. Duc De Genevries has looked impressive enough in two starts this season including last time when chasing home Samcro, although I cant see him reversing the form, hes a decent EW chance. Black Op will need a quieter ride to last time considering he got tired and smashed the last, he was eventually nipped to the line by Santini. In my novices preview I’ve already sided with Next Destination with and without the favourite. He’s been mighty impressive over hurdles and looks to have plenty up his sleeve, the trip may be slightly shorter than what he will eventually want but at this stage of his career and with the soft ground it should be perfect. If, and its only if, bookies got 4 places on the Supreme, I’d be tempted to add Black Op at 11/1 ew as I think the top 4 in the market are streets ahead.

*Next Destination – 2pts @ 4/1

*Next Destination w/o Samcro – 2pts @ 9/4

Black Op(only if 4 places EW) – 1pt ew @ 11/1

RSA Novices’ Chase

Presenting Percy is the only one for me here. He’s next years Gold Cup winner imo and I dont understand the constant crabbing of form. The figures he put him last year when hacking up in the Pertemps were ahead of anything in the Albert Bartlett including Monalee and Penhill. On soft or heavy ground his form reads 2114113112. The latest of those when behind Gold Cup candidate Our Duke. Coming to the last, Presenting Percy looked all over the winner but Our Duke was given a more rigerous finishing effort and ending up winning a length or so. Davy Russell was very gentle on Presenting Percy and this race has been the finishing point since the start of the season. He’s got bucket loads of experience after winning a 14 runner 3m5f handicap on soft, and the race in open company last time. He loves Cheltenham, hes used to big fields and gets in my opinion the best jockey aboard. As a danger, I think Al Boum Photo is very good, but not many top top class, Monalee I would have major doubts about staying the 3m on testing ground and would fancy him more of he had gone the JLT. Black Corton was a “lucky” winner of his G1 at Kempton considering the top 2 in the market fell and although hes a winning machine, this is the hardest race he’s ever ran in by some way. The rest look like potential boats who could run in the 4m such as Dounikos and Elegant Escape. One of them boats for me is overpriced, Allysson Monterg at 50/1. He’s a dour stayer and should be fine on the testing ground. On brutal ground, he was 2^nd at 40/1 beaten a neck by Champers on Ice on trials day in the Neptune trial, and at 50/1 he was 6^th in the Albert Bartlett. He’s a potential for the bounce factor considering his time off but at the price he’s worth a chance to hit the frame if it turns into a slog.

Presenting Percy – 5pts @ 5/2

Allysson Monterg – 0.25pt ew @ 50/1

CORAL CUP

I can’t have Max Dynamite here, his jumping isn’t great and he’s been held off marks lower than this in big handicaps before such as this race and the Galway Hurdle. I’m usually one for a big price but I can’t imagine a finish to this race where William Henry isn’t seriously involved. Owner/Trainer won this race with Whisper, off 153, with promising conditional at the time Nico De Boinville claiming 3lb off. He’s a G1 animal now and William Henry is almost a copy. He’s off 151 with promising conditional James Bowen taking 3lb off and he’s definitely a graded horse in the future. Over hurdles his form reads 21211 with the two 2nds behind Pingshou(won G1 at Aintree) and Wholestone(161 rated). He took advantage of a lenient mark last time off 145 and a raise of 6lb is not harsh. The 2^nd and 6^th finished 3^rd and 4^th in the Betfair. 4^th Topofthegame won a G3 handicap easily next time and even the 7^th Le Patriote won next time. Off 151(with -3lb for Bowen) hes got a fair few lbs in hand for me and rates a top bet at 8/1 5places. The other I did like antepost was Le Breuil who I think is chucked in off 139 going back to his hurdle form last year when smashing Benatar. However he doesn’t want this ground and at 12s that’s too short for me. His other runner Kildisart is 1^st reserve so may not run but if he were to sneak it at the bottom off 10st 8 I’d give him a chance considering he was looking like the winner last time before ploughing into the 2^nd last.

William Henry – 2.5pts ew @ 8/1

Kildisart – 0.5pts ew @ 40/1 (first reserve currently)

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

A bloody humdinger of a racer, one of the best of week and I’m siding with the outsider of the main 3 in Min. Altior and Douvan are probably better on natural talent, however Altior is running second time off a biggish break(bounce) and was almost a non runner because of puss found in his foot when he was lame. He’s been cleared to run but it’s still a worry and I just can’t have Douvan winning this after a year off. He’s trained and ridden by a genius but I just can’t have him. Min is 4/1 3place and that’s each way banker material. He’s streets ahead of the rest after spanking Special Tiara last time and is guaranteed to get a strong pace to settle in. If Altior and Douvan take each other on a bit early Min could pick them off and he’s the least exposed of the 3.

Min – 2pts ew @ 4/1

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE

A highlight of the the festival for many and last years winner Cause of Causes is bound to be popular but im siding with stable mate Tiger Roll at 7/1. He’s been primed for this all year, had the exact same prep as Cause of Causes last year when running at the November meeting and then coming over to school during the sales. Trainer Gordon Elliot was very bullish on his chances at preview nights and this dual Festival winner can go in again. As a speculative punt, I can’t ignore 150/1 about Chic Name. Richard Hobson has had cross country banks and obstacles put in his yard to prime the horse for this occasion. He’s only 6 with improvement sure to come unlike some of the others and has the back class of form to suggest he could be good enough. In a Novice Chase 14months ago, he finished 9l behind Buveur D’Air and 6l behind Cloudy Dream, he was then 4^th in a G2 chase before running in a G1 in France. He really wants a trip and wont mind the ground and as an unknown potential in the race, he has to carry some of my money against the exposed types you get in this race.

Tiger Roll – 2pts @ 7/1

Chic Name – 0.25pts @ 150/1

FRED WINTER JUVENILE

One of the most difficult races of the festival for me, with younger horses struggling at the course, in the big fields or not handlign the occasion. It’s been won by big prices in previous years and recently imported French horses. One of them this year that’s been mentioned at preview nights is Tom George’s Casa Tall. He’s off 139 which isn’t easy to win off but he’s a potential graded animal considering that his win last time in France formwise looks hot. The two in behind have won since including a Listed victory, originally, George said they’d go to the G1 at Aintree but it’s substantial they’re aiming him at this festival off his mark. Lizzie Kelly/Nick Williams won for me on Tuesday with Coo Star Sivola and after Williams won the race last year, he has a shot again with Esprit de Somoza. He beat 144 rated Gumball on his second start and then ran in an open novice hurdle behind The Russian Doyen, that horse had a very easy lead off slow pace and sprinted clear, EDS wasn’t hard pushed and just cruised into 2^nd never having a chance to win. In a proper pace, big field, settling he could be dangerous.

Esprit de Somoza – 0.5pt ew @ 16/1

Casa Tall – 1pt ew @ 33/1

CHAMPION BUMPER

A race I don’t like to bet big on, will throw a few darts at horses I think have the potential to be superstars. Seddon is fancied from the owners and couldn’t have been more impressive on debut. The Big Bite has won very nicely twice and looks a huge scopey type. Carefully Selected is from the deadly duo of Walsh and Mullins and with four runs, 2 ptp and 2 bumpers, he’s more experienced than most of these and he’d be my strongest fancy. Antepost wise I liked Felix Desjy at 20s but the price has gone.

Seddon – 0.25pt ew @ 50/1

The Big Bite – 0.25pt ew @ 28/1

Carefully Selected – 1pt ew @ 12/1

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY 1

Tuesday

Sedgefield(sorry!)

13.20– Modulus 1pt @ 10/1

Modulus is 4/17 in his career. 3 of those wins coming on heavy and the other coming on soft to heavy. Every other run has been good to soft or better. His wins coming off marks of 90, 98, 105 and 108. Its guraneed to be very soft tomorrow and hes now off 105. He won the novice handicap hurdle on the card last year off 105 when sent off 7/4 and returns to this card in the open handicap hurdle off 105.

14.45– Chanceofa Lifetime 0.5pt @ 25/1

Owner/trainer have won this race for the last 3 years. This horse isnt one to rely on with a low strike rate in his career but in Class 5 or 6 company over jumps his form reads 311. The rest of his career runs have been C4 or above. He drops into C5 for the first time since May 2015. His last winning mark was 107 with a place off 109 a year ago. Hes now dropped to a career low 90. With his dropping mark and connections insane record in the race hes a bet at a massive price.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

I’ve already advised Kalashnikov 5/1 and Slate House 25/1. I’m happy enough with them apart from the groud getting too testing. With Slate House I’d like a bit of better ground. I still dont fancy Getabird at the prices and considering the ground I’m tempted to add one at a huge price.T hat’s going to be Mags Mullins Debuchet at 50/1. He’s available 5 places at 40/1 too for that extra safety. He was without doubt one of the best bumper horses last year including a 2^nd place in the Champion Bumper. The next 3 behind him that day were Claimantakinforgan(144), Western Ryder(146) and Next Destination(150). Hes not even won over hurdles yet however hes better than what hes shown. He missed the early part of the season after having wind surgery and Mags ran him at Christmas when unfit, to give him experience. He did the donkey worked, jumped nicely, travelled well and after the last emptied to finish 4^th. He was then pitched straight into G1 company when 13l behind Samcro in the Deloitte. That race wouldnt have suited him with a crawling pace which turned into a sprint. I believe well see a different horse when settled behind a proper pace. Although he may no be a huge fan of the ground, many of these wont and a little dabble on him with the places on offer is worthy taking.

*Kalashnikov – 1pt @ 5/1

*Slate House – 0.5pt @ 25/1

Debuchet – 0.25pt ew @ 50/1 4 places OR 40/1 5 places

Arkle Novices Chase

A race I have no real opinion on. Footpad is the best horse in the race, with the best form and hes a deserved fav. Saint Calvados gets his ground but I worry about the track and trainers record at the festival. The one I cant have is Brain Power whos been sloppy and clearly lacks confidence right now. No bet for me but I’d be interesting in a 10/11 vs 10/11 match bet between Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir, siding with the French import.

Ultima Handicap Chase

The race cut up quite bad with only 18 going to post and more NR likely. My Antepost selection Coo Star Sivola is still there and is now a well backed 5/1 fav. His credentials are there for all to see, a progressive chaser, improved up in trip, a brilliant festival record and the trainer does well in the race. I wouldnt be backing him at 5s as hes still a novice and im not a massive fan of the jockey but I’m happy to let my 16s roll. Singlefarmpayment is the biggest danger, a head 2^nd in the race last year off 142, he was then running extremely well in the Hennessy off 147. Hes down to 145 at a course he absolutely loves and has been running in much better races, lately punted from 33s to 8/1 in the G1 Cotswolds Chase. Hes made a few mistakes jumping wise recently and has had vigorous schooling to get him back on track. The ground was initially a worry but he bolted up in a handicap hurdle on brutal ground at Cheltenham and looked impressive. He wont be out of the top3 if he gets round. As for the outsiders, the soft ground horses have been found with Yala Enki, Vintage Clouds and Ramses De Teillee being backed in the last 48hours.

*Coo Star Sivola – 2pts @ 16/1 NRNB

*Ibis Du Rheu – 0.5ps ew @ 33/1 NRNB – NR, money back.

Champion Hurdle

Buvuer Dair will win, but he can be easily left at 8/15. Faugheen or Yorkhill I would want double the price considering in 4 runs together theyve been massively below par. My Tent wont win, but hell finish top 4. Melon just in good enough for me, hes not improved as we expected. I want to have 2 horses on my side here and they are Elgin and Wicklow Brave. Wicklow Brave is one of few to put in multiple 160+ performances in and has the talent to win. He missed the break by 7l last year but still came there tanking on the bend before trading at 4.1 and then emptying. If jumping off level I cant see him being out the top 3. His record on heavy is 1116811 and his ability to tank through the race such as he did when winning the County means turning in you’ll be in with a shot. While Elgin hasnt ran on heavy, his record on soft is 1211 with that defeat coming against Neon Wolf. He’s progressed this season from 140 to 161 after wins in the Greatwood and Kingwell and unlike Melon, Yorkhill and Faugheen, comes here in great form. Buvuer Dair wins bar a fall, injury or massive jockey cock up so minimal stakes.

Wicklow Brave 0.5pt ew @ 16/1 or w/o fav @ 7/1

Elgin 0.5pt ew @ 20/1 or w/o the fav @ 8/1

Mares Hurdle

Just like the Champion, the favourite won the race last year too and looks unbeatabe. For the 2 next in the market are worth taking out. Benie Des Dieux smacks of last minute decision to run here and she seems a superb chaser, the run last time wasnt brilliant either. La Bague Au Roi definitely seems a flat track bully and didnt like the course last year. Jers Girl is interesting, a multiple G1 winner as a juvenile she was only just beaten when a non stayer at Kempton behind La Bague Au Roi and id have her reversing the form at Cheltenham. However shes recently shortened from 25s to 12s and that as a bet is too short when Apples Jade is a cert. Id take Jers Girl in a match if available. The bet is one at a bigger price and thats Midnight Tour. She finished 6^th last year with Tom Cannon aboard but then hacked up with Davy Russell on a month later over course and distance. She has form on soft unlike some of these and gets Davy back on board. Shes actually rated the 4th best in race and only 2lb off Beni Des Dieux for 3^rd best rated. The other bet I’ll be having with her is in a match bet with Indian Stream. Indian Stream finished just ahead of her in last years race but it was a good ground, and when Davy was on board a month later, Midnight Tour beat her by 12l. Indian Stream has only had 3 runs on heavy early in her career beaten a combined 112 lengths. Her last 18 runs had been on going with GOOD in the description until last time when she ran on soft to heavy and was pulled up. Theyre closely rated, with a win a piece against each other but with Davy on, soft ground massively in her favour and Indian Stream being useless, the 8/11 with BV in a match is a certainty.

Midnight Tour 0.25pt ew @ 66/1

Midnight Tour 0.5pt ew @ 28/1 w/o fav

Midnight Tour 10pts @ 8/11. Match bet vs Indian Stream.

National Hunt Chase

No Comment is a doubtful stayer, with little experience. Rathviden confidence has to be questioned after two nasty falls recently. The outsiders look to have no chance. Jury Duty and Mossback have quality chances with top amateurs booked but are 5/1 now and in these conditions id rather look elsewhere. Duel at Dawn was my selection at 40/1 in my article and I see no reason to desert him. Hes a dour stayer and an impeccable jumper, the race has been the plan since his first chase start and when others have had enough he wont be stopping. 20/1 is still a decent bet with 4 places on offer. Ms Parfois could be a dark horse given a quiet ride. Shes progressed every run this year and won a decent handicap at the course back end of 2017. She was flat out up the run in and didnt have much left so stamina woud be a worry but she gets the mares allowance.

*Duel at Dawn 1pt ew @ 40/1

Close Brothers Novices Handicap Chase

A race full of plots but tonnes of these will hate the ground. De Plotting Shed is the best backed since the weights came out but I dont think hes as good a chaser as hurdler and hes not won in his last 10 runs. Mister Whittaker is progressive but I feel this may be a step too far, although he was impressive enough on Trials Day. Any Second Now another well backed plot horse, all his runs have been on soft or worse so hes bound to handle conditions, but hes 5/1 and I’d rather look elsewhere with 5/6 places on offer. Le Rocher will handle conditions definitely but I dont think hes the potential grade horse you need in this race. Testify is 3/3 over fences and 3/3 on heavy in them races too. Hes a potential superstar but all his runs have been on flat tracks and you worry how hell handle the course. The 3 I’m taking stabs at are the following. Rather Be should be 3/3 over fences, two wins either side of an unseat when 1/7f. He was well backed for a handicap hurdle last year when unseating, and made amends in impressive fashion at Aintree when winning a 22 runner handicap. Hes off just 6lb higher than that day but promises to be a better chaser. Hes used to big fields and is 3/3 on soft, with an UR and 2^nd on heavy. The second is Barney Dwan, 2^nd in the Pertemps last year behind G1 animal Presenting Percy, hes now on the exact same mark as last year but again looks a better chaser than hurdler. Hes finished in the top 5, 13/14 times in his career when completing and 2 and half around Cheltenham is his bag. The final one is the potential G1 horse in a handicap and thats Demi Sang for JP and Mullins. His 4 career runs over fences have all been on soft or worse winning 3. He was outpaced on his Irish debut but stayed on very strongly to get the better of Avenue Du Vie over a trip too short. Again he ran over 2m next time in the irish Arkle when smashed by Footpad and Petit Mouchoir. He was totally outpaced and didnt have the speed/technique that they possessed in a proper 2m G1. They could be 1^st and 2^nd in the Arkle tomorrow. His wins in France came over 2m3f(x2) and 2m3f(x2). He’s only 5 and could have untapped potential over middle distance trips or further. The ground won be a bother to him and hes a decent price to take a punt on.

Barney Dwan – 0.5pt ew @ 8/1

Rather Be – 0.5pt ew @ 10/1

Demi Sang – 1pt ew @ 16/1

(All 6 places with Skybet only. Elsewhere could be bigger prices but dont offer 6 places).

*already advised on this blog.

Novice Hurdles Preview

Supreme:

I’ve got this down to the top 10 in the betting(no shit). I can’t find a strong case for any of the really big prices and apart from the freak Labaik, who was a weapon when starting a race, there has been few huge prices in the last 10 years or so. The first to talk about is Paloma Blue, while he’s a smart horse I think he was totally flattered the last day behind Samcro. The pace was slow, he took it up turning in and went clear with Samcro. Off such a slow pace it’s no surprise that looking back, he’s on the bridle while everything in behind is off the bit. It’ll be a totally different set up in the Supreme going fast from the get go and with his finishing effort being poor against Spades or Trumps at Punchestown I doubt how good he actually is. Sharjah started brightly and while he’d have won his G1 impressively when falling, he ran below par the last day and you really need a horse with confidence coming into the Supreme. First Flow is one of many impressive novices this year for Kim Bailey but he was beaten in bumpers on better ground and has since bolted up twice on heavy ground, I worry the ground has flattered him. He’s still a fair animal but two wins on flat tracks on heavy is a world away from good to soft/soft at Cheltenham. Mengli Khan has gone downhill since impressive wins earlier in the season. He’s been well beaten twice now and surely is odds against to like the Cheltenham experience. Summerville Boy is one of the more exposed types but has won a G1, albeit being flattered because Kalashnikov lost a shoe and hated the ground.

Claimantakinforgan has had 8 starts under rules winning 3, yes most were bumpers but I’m beginning to think he’s just not that good. The Ascot race he won was poor, off a slow pace and a few of the horses yards were out of form. Dr Dres and Theclockisticking have been well beaten since and Slate House was well beaten too, however the race really didn’t suit him. Since he’s been beaten over 2m4 on heavy when Tizzard was in shocking form. He’s definitely a horse who prefers a sounder surface and still hasn’t had a proper lead in a race over 2m. His G2 on better ground in the Supreme trial is really working out form wise and he couldn’t have been more impressive even with hurdles taken out. The yard is in much better form and his two course and distance wins could be vital. He’s a prominent racer and I see him running top3/4 before making a move to try and get first run up the hill with his point stamina there as back up. He’s definitely over priced at 25s with excuses for the last day.

Out of the top 2 id definitely side with Kalashnikov over Getabird, especially at the prices. Kalashnikov has one huge advantage over most in this field, a run in a huge rustle bustle handicap. The supreme is obviously a novice but it runs more like a top 2m handicap with 15+ runners and a lot of luck in running. Most of these have been running in 4/5/6 runner novices and will be bamboozled by the huge field. Now Kalashnikov has proven form on better ground with two dominant wins in novices, and has since ran twice on bad ground. The first in the Tolworth he lost a shoe and the ground was brutal. In the second he won the Betfair Hurdle in impressive fashion after looking beat halfway. On better ground he’s sure to improve and that’s scary considering he’s already 153 after the Betfair win. The trainer wouldn’t worry me as she’s shown capable of producing her horses on the big days. Getabird is a worthy fav but he’s too short. He beat a horse on the downgrade last time receiving weight and there’s a few negatives I would be worry about. Firstly is his “dodgy legs”. He’s fragile, there’s no doubt about that and even though he seems to have come together in recent months, the undulations of Cheltenham would be a worry for me. I’m not sure how balanced he is as a horse and that also shows in his jumping. At preview nights there’s been plenty of talk about him not going left handed yet and while I was initially sceptical, having watched his runs back, he really does hang right on his jumps. Now this is on right handed tracks where he drifts across the track to jump right, so imagine how bad it could be on a left handed track. He’s got the right man on in Ruby Walsh who I’m sure will bury him but I think the jumping and his frame/balance could be the thing that gets him beaten.

My Supreme Top 3

1. Kalashnikov 5/1

2. Slate House 25/1

3. Getabird 7/4

Neptune

This will taken much shorter than the Supreme to talk about. There’s nothing at bigger price that interest me greatly. The two if any, would be Debuchet and Vision des Flos both at 33s for different reasons. Debuchet was a serious beast in bumpers and finished 2nd at the festival last year. He’s had his setback earlier this season and was unfit first time out. Second run they pitched him into G1 company and wouldn’t have enjoyed the slow pace it was run at. Hopefully like last year the return to course and ground will help and the fact the wind op could be slowly improving his confidence. He’s definitely been brought along slowly. VDF was the opposite, thrown in at the deep end after his 350k purchase from Robert Tyners yard. He too had a wind op and then came out and bolted up on bad ground in a listed event. Now he’s got confidence and can breathe he’s fairly interesting but you’d worry it was a fluke on such bad ground with him underperforming so much before that.

For me only 4 can win this. Samcro, On the Blind Side, Next Destination and Black Op. Duc De Genievres looked a non stayed two runs back and was better over 2m when chasing home Samcro, he should be in the Supreme off a strong pace. The winner of that race Samcro just looks a monster. 7/7 from 2m to 3m on any ground. He’s taken everything in his stride and battered a very good G1 last time out. If handling Cheltenham undulations and hill he could be anything but he hasn’t yet, and I believe he should run in the Supreme regardless of ground. On The Blind Side has been a little weak in the market recently, after a huge run on his hurdling debut he then won at Sandown in the shape of a proper animal. However the doubt lies with him in the track. His run at Cheltenham was strange to say the least, having been outpaced and seemingly not handled the course, he then benefitted from a pace collapse to snatch a win from the jaws of defeat. Like Getabird, he’s fragile and that puts me off at the price.

Black Op is interesting, his improvement came when upped in trip and the last day he just got outstayed on heavy ground by the Albert Bartlett favourite. He hit the front too soon and was nabbed. I think he should be running in the Albert Bartlett on better ground given a quieter ride and think he could be too slow for this. Next destination is the one I fancy most. He’s got the perfect balance of speed and stamina and has course form from last years bumper. His hurdling debut was even more impressive than Samcros considering he smashed Someday and Paloma Blue so easily. His run after beating Cracking Smart and Jetz has been boosted with both horses finishing 2nd in G1s since. He improved once again winning his G1 beating Cracking Smart once again, Duc De Genievres(2nd to Samcro), Jetz(2nd in G1) and Blow by Blow(won G2 since). He’s deadly at his hurdles and although he only won that race by 1l, he hit the front fair bit early and idled after the last. At Cheltenham with hopefully a proper pace and a lead for longer there’s no chance he finishes outside the top3. The only way he gets beat is if Samcro truly is the second coming.

My Neptune Top 3

1. Next Destination 4/1

2. Samcro 8/11

3. Black Op 14/1

Albert Bartlett

First off let’s rule out Chris’s Dream, he’s shown nothing of decent form until a 64l win on brutal ground and im pretty confident he was flattered. Duc de Genievres last ran over 2m, the yard don’t know what type of horse they have just yet. Real Steel hasn’t gone further than 2m. Callet Mad goes Pertemps. Ballyward is too inexperienced. The favourite Santini is also very inexperienced for a race of this nature and I slightly feel he was flattered with Black Op taking it up so early and emptying up the hill on bad ground. He’d beaten stablemate Chef Des Obeaux before that but was sent off 7/2 vs the 11/8 that CDO was sent off at. Although he beat him comfortably, CDO has certainty improved the further he’s gone. What I like about Chef Des Obeaux is the fact he’s had a hard race and proved himself to be tough and game. At Uttoxeter he had to fend off Bob Mahler for most of the straight but plugged in to win. His wins recently have been more straight forward but his last furlongs have always looked his best. He’s battled hardened enough to cope with a race like this but has a classy edge that some of the brawlers don’t.

Two horses I like at bigger prices are Enniscoffey Oscar and Talkischeap. Talkischeap was freely available at 40/1 a week or so ago before being tipped around preview nights but hes still a tasty price. Enniscoffey Oscar has a little bit of class about him, when he beat Western Ryder, Claimantakinforgan and If the Cap Fits in last seasons Aintree bumper. He’s taken a while to get going over hurdles but still possessed some smart placed form. His form improved at a rate of knots when visiting Doncaster. The huge galloping stamina sapping straight plays to his strengths. He won an Albert Bartlett trial there when proving the toughest of the field prevailing in a photo. He’s not flashy but he’s gutsy and can be sure to be plugging on when others have had enough. Talkischeap is a very similar type. His latest win in a handicap on brutal ground was impressive and even more so because the trainer is adamant he would be better on a sounder surface. Proper handicap form is a massive advantage in a race like this as Uknowhatimeanharry showed a few years ago. He’s a brutal stayed who’s 4-4 over 3m including his points and while he may not have the class edge, he certainly won’t be stopping turning in.

My Albert Bartlett Top 3

1. Chef des Obeaux 6/1

2. Talkischeap 20/1

3. Enniscoffey Oscar 20/1

Advised bets:

Supreme

1pt Kalashnikov 5/1 NRNB – General

0.5pt ew Slate House 25/1 NRNB – General

Ballymore

2pt Next Destination 4/1 NRNB – Bet365/William Hill

2pt Next Destination 9/4 NRNB without Samcro William Hill

Albert Bartlett

1pt Chef Des Obeaux 6/1 NRNB – Boyles/BetVictor

County Hurdle Preview

Here’s my third preview of a Cheltenham race after I previewed the National Hunt Chase and the Ultima Handicap. The County is often the most competitive race of the festival but hopefully I’ve narrowed it down and even if you don’t agree you might take something away from the stats/trends/analysis! So here goes!

 

Firstly the hores that won’t get in;

Bottom weight in the County in the last few years;

2012: 132

2013: 132

2014: 132

2015: 134

2016 138

2017: 135

With the bottom weight slowly increasing year on year, I’m going to rule out all the horses rated 135 or less. A few will sneak in but its a guessing game for some rated 134/135 and only 2/3 will make it. Zubayr, Okotoks, Mischevious Max, I Shot The Sheriff, Huntsmans Son, Grand Partner, comanchie cheiftan, Brahms Der Clermont, Anomly, Atheanan, William H Boney, Veinard, St Stephens Green, Powesbomb, Krugermac, Magic Dancer, Master of Irony, Dolciano dici, Falak, I’m a Game Changer, Friday Night Lights, Dis Donc, Caid du Lin, Demon Daunou, Black Mischief, Makatorix, Le patriote and Solomon Grey.

Now I’m going to rule out the horses at the head of the weights, 11/12 last winners carried 11st1 or less and the one exception was last years winner Arctic Fire. He carried top weight but he’d previously been placed in the Champion Hurdle and was a G1 horse in a handicap. I don’t believe any near the top of the market are as classy as him or able to live with the weight. These are Call Me Lord who looked progressive before really disappointing last time. Global Citizen bolted up the last day in the Dovecote but is one for Aintree. Jenkins has been rejuvenated in the blinkers but is much higher rated than his previous two wins. Mick Jazz is a possible for the Champion and is high enough now after winning the Champion Hurdle in Ireland and Christmas. Remulic had a rise after his Cheltenham win and definitely prefers a softer surface.

Now for the horses that are just in terrible form or been well held off their marks recently. I’m going to leave the JP horses now as we all know what they’re like and I’ll preview them separately later. The Game Changer, Flaxen Flare, Carrig Cathal, Karalee and Charli Parcs.

8 of the last 12 winners had 3 or more runs that season. Again, Arctic Fire is one of them that is an exception but like I said, he was a Champion Hurdle quality horse and trained by a genius. This trend rules out Sandsend, All Set To Go, Voix du Reve, Sternrubin, St Stephens Green, Powersbomb, Moon Racer, Joey Sasa, Divin Bere, Bunk Off Early, Blue Berry, Cliffs Of Dover, Abyssial, Lough Derg Spirit, Deal Destruval, Pravalunga and Max Dynamite.

I’ll just expand on my dismissal of Max Dynamite as he’s the antepost favourite. He’s had three chances in big handicaps, off 136, 141 and 137 in two Galway Plates and a County. He was 2nd in a Galway Plate off 136 but that’s the best he’s managed and a well backed favourite last time off 141 he was a well beaten 9th. I think the hypes been unjustified and he’s a much much better flat horse who’s not the most fluent jumper. His price is silly and purely based on connections and hype.

Now for the horses that aren’t definite runners. Countister is more than likely going for the mares. Hardline may go Supreme. Ben Dundee is better over further and has the Coral. Chito Balko wants heavy ground. Whiskey Sour goes Supreme. Brelade, Ozzie the Oscar and North Hill Harvey both go over fences. Dear Sire is best on flat tracks like Muss, Perth and Stratford. Morgan has had 11 starts over hurdles as a novice and is looking exposed now. Poppy Kay best form is on heavy and further. Amour du Nuit is a flat track horse. Gwafa is the same. Whatswrongwithyou runs in the Imperial Cup next week and may be one to attempt the double but he’d have to win to really stamp his claims in the County and he’s 10/1 to win next week.

Now we’ve cut that down we’re left with the following; Barra, Smaoineamh Allain, Us and Them, Project Bluebook, Mohaayed, Chesterfield, Delire Destruval, Meri Devie, Spiritofthegames, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tigris River, Le Richbourg, Le Patriote, Kayf Grace, Lagostovegas, Flying Tiger, Duca de Thaix and A Hare Breath. Just the 18 to get through.

A Hare Breath is the first I’m ruling out. He’s a sensational horse fresh with his p2p win coming after 294 days. After 695 days he bolted up in a Cheltenham handicap in November a few years back, after 293 days he was 4th in the Greatwood and recently after 246 days off won a decent Sandown listed event. Now my issue is that all them were achieved between 120-139 and he’s now 145. He’s been kept fresh for this and he lines up but he’s no secret in the market either and I can leave him due to that and the fact I think the mark may just be too much. Le Patriote has been well backed on all 3 of his starts for Newland and finally came good but all 3 starts were on soft or heavy and two were 2m3/2m5. Tigris River is one of the JP horses I’m ruling out. Impressive winner of the Galway Plate off 140 he’s since struggled in 4 decent handicaps off 147-150. Albeit they were all on softer ground but his only run at Cheltenham was poor and he’s probably going to be targeted at Galway again. Meri Devie couldn’t win two much weaker handicaps off a lower mark and seems to prefer further and with entries in the Mares, Coral and Martin Pipe that’s another gone. Us And Them failed to win two good ground bumpers before winning a maiden and novice hurdle on heavy, his last run behind Duca de Thaix is decent however he’s another with 3 other entries and seems to prefer heavy ground. Le Richebourg is another I’m leaving out, I do think he’s on an attractive mark but he’s got no Cheltenham form, no big handicap form and he’s again one for the Galway plate or something similar in the summer, his last few runs have been poor but in bad ground so he’s potentially well treated back on better ground. Spiritofthegames comes from a yard who’ve had success in this race before however I believe the coral cup is the aim. A p2p winner over 3m and 6 of his last 7 runs under rules have come over 2m4 or further. He’s got a good chance though in that as he’s been 2nd and 3rd to William Henry and Kalashnikov in big handicaps this season. Mohaayed is another of Skeltons and he was 7th in this last year as a novice off 134. He was bottom weight that day but now is 5lb higher and hasn’t shown any signs of progression. Delire Destruval is a winner on Haydock heavy and coming from France that’s no shock, he’s shown a preference for bad ground and he’s a big embryonic chasing type who I don’t think would handle Cheltenham or the ground, nice type for the future though. Smaoineamh Allain is the last one I’m going to rule out. He’s really progressive, 3/3 over hurdles after coming from Ireland however I just think it may be a little too soon, the trainer isn’t the most experienced with Cheltenham Festival runners and although there’s still improvement to come I doubt it’s going to be when winning the County.

Kayf Grace; After winning the mares bumper at Aintree beating to likes of La Bague Au Roi, Shattered Love and Augusta Kate it took a while for her hurdling career to take off. She bolted up off 132 at Christmas but then disappointed on bad ground in the Betfair. I still think she’s well treated and will be better on a sounder surface but she’s been difficult to train, she’s never ran at Cheltenham before and I think the Betfair on bad ground could dent the chances of those who ran in it.

Barra: She’s really interesting for me, albeit she could go the Mares hurdle. I’d like to see her here sneaking in off 136 which I think is very lenient. She was 2nd at last years festival behind Lets Dance and the form of that race is very strong. In behind Verdana Blue(+9lb), La Bague Au Roi(+15lb) and Forge Meadow(+6lb) were all in behind and she recently came back to form when 2nd at the Dublin Racing Festival behind a chucked in rival in Allterix. The negatives however are that she’s 1/12 under rules and could go the Mares.

Final list; Chesterfield, Ivanovich Gorbatov, Duca de Thaix, Project Bluebook, Lagostovegas and Flying Tiger.

Ivanovich Gorbatov 20/1

Now I put this horse up on Twitter at 33s but I’m not as confident as I once was. He’s been plotted for this all year since his close up 5th last year off 150. Now he’s been running in bad ground in big handicaps dropping in the weights, getting down to 5lb lower than he was last year until the handicapper decided to lob him back up 3lb despite leaving most Irish horses on their marks. He’s still got a great chance. He’s so much better on good ground and he’s a proven festival performer beating Apples Jade in the Triumph and then finishing 5th in the County last year behind Arctic Fire. He wore first time blinkers in last years race which haven’t been worn since so it would be significant if they were on again. I think he’ll run well and go very close with probably just not being good enough or well handicapped enough to win.

Project Bluebook 33/1

A quality juvenile last season that ended his campaign winning a G2 in Ireland after a 4th off 138 in the Fred Winter. He gets an 8lb swing with that winner Flying Tiger however was beaten 6l. He’s only had two runs since going off 40/1 and 50/1 in the Greatwood and Betfair on softer ground and the sounder surface and return to Cheltenham may spark him back but having no signs of progression I can’t have him.

Duca de Thaix 25/1

One of the least exposed in the field and will hopefully sneak in off 136. Her three runs in Ireland have all been in graded company and although the form doesn’t look stand out, it’s the manner in which she travels which makes her a contender for me. On his first start for over a year she was way too keen early but still came there tanking at the second last before just empty if after the last which is understandably given her keeness and time off. Her next run she was much improved when winning impressively and finding plenty off pressure. Last time out she was very disappointing, but it wasn’t the fastest run race and she was very keen once again. She was still travelling well when turning in unlike others and just dropped back down the field. It’s hard to fancy her strongly after that run however it’s clear to see a stronger pace will see her to best affect and you could see a different horse once settling. Her 3 runs have all been on heavy and she has no Cheltenham experience which are the negatives.

Chesterfield 33/1

A horse I’m really torn on. On one hand he’s won two huge handicaps, one at the Aintree festival and then the Scottish County beating high class horses Sceau Royal, London Prize, Lame Serge and he’s best on good ground in big fields. However his trainer Seamus Mullins is 3 from 100 with his runners at Cheltenham and that’s simply horrific. He bolted up at Ainteee off 132 and followed up at Ayr off 143. 3 runs this season have been disappointing however they were in competitive handicaps off 148/146 and he then had no chance at Christmas behind Buvuer Dair and The New One, now the handicapper has given him a huge chance dropped to 140, 3lb lower than his Scottish County win. I originally worried about his Cheltenham form as he missed the festival last year, but that was because he was rated 132, some 2/3lb than that required to get in. In 2014 when with John Ferguson, he won a 19 runner novices handicap at Cheltenham quite impressively so he loves the track. Last year he also had 2 poor runs in softer ground and simply comes alive on better ground. Daniel Sansom should hopefully ride claiming 7 which is a huge help as he rode him in them Aintree and Ayr wins. He’s got 3 big wins in 16/19/19 runner handicaps at big meetings and a very good course and distance win under his belt too. He’s simply over priced at 33s and despite the trainers record, I think off 140 back on decent ground he’s got a superb chance. Remember, Tim Vaughan was 0/157 at Cheltenham before a win at the course this season so I’m trying to not let it put me off too much.

Flying Tiger 16/1

There’s been a bit of a gamble on this horse over the last week having been backed from 25/33s to now 12/14s with a few firms still 16s. This obviously has an affect on whether he’s a bet or not as with the shorter price you have to be more critical. He was a very impressive winner of last years Fred Winter off 134 and has since struggling in open company. However the races haven’t seen him to his best effect with small fields and slow paced not his cup of tie, he’s definitely a better horse and managed to settled with a full on pace which he gets at Cheltenham. The handicapper has given him a right chance based on figures from his last race where he was giving weight to Call me Lord and Chitbello and only finished just behind despite them being 12/16lb better rated than him. The one big negative is how bad last years race was. Only 3 horses have won a race since and two of them won poor novices. The only horse to improve from the race is Dolos over fences but even if you include him, all the horses in that Fred Winter 2017 have ran 100 times, with 5 wins and 21 places. I believe he’ll be much improved on a sounder surface with proper pace however the price has gone and at 14/16s I would just have my doubts that’s he’d need to be ridden with an lot of luck and that the race he won last year was dreadful.

Lagostovegas 25/1

Lagostovegas has every box ticked for me. She’s progressive, she’s improving, she handles big fields numerous times, she’s trained by the master Mullins. In the summer she moved from David Kelly to Willie and like Total Recall has done nothing but improved. She had a busy summer with 8 runs up til November and they included a 3rd of 20 over hurdles at Galway, a 3rd of 20 on the flat at Galway, a 3rd of 34 in the Cesarwitch and she’s also been 6th of 20 in a competitive Christmas handicap hurdle. She’s got bundles of experience in big fields and Galway hill and tight turns will definite be a big experience for her in a race like the County. She hasn’t had that many hurdle starts for Willie and was really progressive last year which ended in her winning a GradeB handicap at Listowel beating David’s Charm. David’s Charm himself is a rapid improved and he bolted up at Christmas and he’s now 16lb higher than when facing Lagostovegas. A horse she beat at Killarney called Top Of The Ra came out and won twice improving from 123 to 137. The horse behind her in the Cesarwitch, Dubawi Fifty has since won twice and the horse ahead London Prize bolted up over hurdles before sadly passing. Her form is working out tremendously and i love the fact that they’ve put her away over the winter and then just given her the one run a few weeks back. She was sent off favourite and had every chance to win but to me she just shaped like she needed it and didn’t find as much as she could have. However she has found plenty for pressure before so that’s not a concern, it was just fitness for me. She’s trained by the man who’s won the race 4 of the last 8 years and even though she could be the 2nd/3rd string that doesn’t bother me as Wicklow Brave and Arctic Fire were both overlooked by Ruby and went and won. The one doubt if any, is the fact she’s no Cheltenham experience however I’d like to this if she coped with Newmarket and Galway fine then that’s just as good, as they can be awkward tracks that horses don’t take too either. Lagostovegas is my County #1

My County Top 5

1. Lagostovegas 25/1

2. Chesterfield 33/1

3. Flying Tiger 16/1

4. Ivanovich Gorbatov 20/1

5. Duca de Thaix 25/1

Advised;

0.5pt ew – Chesterfield 33/1 NRNB – Bet365/Skybet

1.5pt ew – Lagostovegas 25/1 – Betfair

Ultima Handicap Chase Preview

After positive feedback on my in depth preview of the National Hunt Chase, I decided to do another starting with the Ultima. Now this has been written over the course of a few days so bare with if prices/targets are not spot on but I did as much research into interviews and stable tours as possible.

.

First thing is first, there’s near 70 entries so let’s cut out the dead wood that is 99% likely not to go, because of other races being confirmed or further targets in the season ahead confirmed. These can be the Irish National, Grand National, 4miler, Close Brothers, JLT/RSA, recently ran in tough races or waiting for Aintree in terms of the favourite currently Gold Present. Irish horses Mala Beach, Alpha des Obeaux, Mossback, Vieux Morwan, General Principle and Monbeg Notorious have been confirmed for the Irish National, 4 miler or elsewhere. American would more than likely go Gold Cup, Seeyouatmidnight, Pleasant Company, Ultra Gold, Gold Present and Vicente will be saved for races at the Aintree festival. Benbens, Lakeview Lad, Dell Arca, Yala Enki, Wild West Wind and Mia’s Storm have been either confirmed for other races, recently ran in top races such as Grand National trial on heavy ground or have hurdle targets.

.

Next we have the horses that simply won’t get into the race because their ratings are too low to get in. These are Federici, Space Cadet, Looksnowikebrian, Shanroe Santos, Band of Blood and Bells Of Ailsworth. Now we get onto the “maybe”. These are horses that have a decent chance if turning up however they simply have so many entries it’s impossible to say at this stage, or the trainers have mentioned other targets ahead of the Ultima. Keeper Hill is a perfect example, he has 5 entries and could be pitched into the RSA, Ultima, Kim Muir, Close Brothers however he’s more likely to go the 4 miler but has options. Others include Markov, Rocklander, De Plotting Shed(all Close Brothers), Sutton Manor, Pendra, Braqueur D’or and Actinpieces(both Kim Muir).

.

We know have to rule out the horses that are just pure trash this season. The ones that either look like they’re rapidly declining, can’t jump for toffee or just running so poorly it’s hard to place a penny on them. Out Sam has just gone backwards the last year despite joining Elliot, another of his Jetstream Jack has recently put in dismal efforts, others including Sizing Codelco, Double Ross, Tintern Theatre, The Young Master, Carole’s Destrier, Viconte de Noyer, Tenor Nivernais, or horses that just prefer brutal ground such as Kings Odyssey, Vic de Touzaine and Pressurise.

.

Finally, before getting a final shortlist of potential winners, I’m confident in ruling out horses that are just too high in the weights. Horses that are proven and exposed and don’t have any room to improve. Buywise, Doing Fine and Wakanda are solid horses but are just exposed and are what they are. Final Nudge, Lord Scoundrel, Double Treasure and Space Cadet have been well held recently off similar marks too. In any race, especially a festival handicap I want to side with a progressive improver who’s definitely got the future ahead of him.

.

Now we have cut out the dead wood, we can look a little in depth at some of the horses. Solighister is progressive for Neil Mulholland however he’s inexperienced over fences, all his chase runs have been less than 5 runners and he’s got no Cheltenham form either. Theatre Guide has some nice bits of Cheltenham form however he’s had 9 runs when rated 150+ with no wins. Smooth Stepper ran in last weeks Eider. Eamon an Cmoic has been kept to flat track and has no Cheltenham form. Perfect Candidate is quite exposed and on proper spring ground more than likely wants further, he’s also off a career high mark. Go Conquer ran well in this last year for a long way, however that was off 137 and after some nice performances he’s 151, he’s possibly also better right handed. Gwencily Berbas connections have great success at Cheltenham including last with Tully East in the Close Brothers handicap. He had a squeak on bits of form however he’s a doubtful stayer mainly running at intermediate trips, the one run over further than 2m5 he won but it was a very weak beginners chase and he was clear on ratings. Knight of Noir has moved trainers and hasn’t ran since, no thanks. Ramses de teillee is progressive however his best form is definitely on heavy ground and he’s also in the novice handicap. Rock the Kasbah is usually kept to softer ground too and his only run at the festival so far in his career was very poor. And finally Royal Vacation is definitely classy but his mark is too high to win off for a festival handicap and there’s slight question marks over his ability in big fields having PU in Hennessy and with his PU in the RSA last year.

.

Three horses who I believe have their optimum trip at intermediate trips. Traffic Fluide, Shantou Flyer and Samtegal. Shantou Flyer has brilliant course form with a big handicap win off a similar mark and two big runs at the New Year meeting and Trials Day. Personally I think he prefers cut and he’s unlikely to get the services of quality conditions like Bastiyan or Bowen which were massive helps recently. Sametegal is interesting off his mark, he was 8th off 150 in the Brown Advisory plate and was 3rd in the Triumph won by the great Our Conor. Both he and Shantou Flyer are in the Brown Advisory Plate and are interest for that but I can rule them out of the Ultima. We’re getting there! A few more to rule out, Testify is a really nice horse, he’s 3/3 on heavy ground over fences this season at between 2m and 2m4. He’s got 5 entries at the festival in the novice races, the Close Brothers, Brown Advisory Plate and this and I believe this is his most unlikely destination. Minella Daddy has no Cheltenham form, has been kept to flat tracks and has also been held off his current mark on his last 3 runs after a win off 131 earlier in the season. Cogry has some very good Cheltenham form including when beating Singlefarmpayment earlier in the year however he’s generally better on a softer surface and the last two years he’s skipped the festival for the Uttoxeter Midlands National. Braqueur D’or‘s 4th in the Hennessy reads well however he’s never ran at Cheltenham before which is a negative and Sam Twiston-Davies mentioned the Kim Muir or 4m as his targets in his Racing Post Q&A. Snow Falcon is very interesting considering he’s rated 157 over hurdles and is now 149 over fences, however he’s not the most natural jumper of a fence having arrived chasing later in his career and he’s got multiple entries in the Kim Muir, 4m and Irish National. Id worry about his jumping in a festival handicap where the margins are so thin and think he goes elsewhere. Beware the Bear PU in the Welsh National latest which is never a good prep however he did run well in the 4m last year but he ran better at Ayr after and is more likely one for the Scottish National. O O Seven has a few nice pieces of form but he’s been held off marks around 152/153 for his last 4 runs and after running so well in the Topham at Aintree last year is more likely to be primed for that again. De Plotting Shed is the last horse I’m confidently ruling out, he’s very well handicapped, in fact he’s 7lb lower over fences than hurdles but is more of a 2m-2m5 horse and has been hyped for the Close Brothers.

.

To find a bet and narrow it down even more, we’ve got to be more critical and find that horse that has everything going for him heading into Cheltenham. Well handicapped, Cheltenham form, experience of the big fields and hurly burly of the festival, with a trainer or connections well established at getting them ready and with improvement still left in their marks.

.

Missed Approach; He’s had a hard season already with placed efforts in Hennessy, Classic Chase and Edinburgh national so it’s unlikely he’s going to be at peak for Cheltenham. He’s more than likely going to be aimed for Scottish or Aintree national like last year however he’s definitely a strong contender now dropped to 137 with his strong 2nd in the 4 miler last year behind Tiger Roll. He’s not a definite runner however he’s dropped to an interesting mark at a course he clearly likes and stays well at. There’s just not much room for improvement of his mark especially considering he’s been quiet well backed in decent handicaps recently and ran well without winning. (Since been confirmed hes going to the Kim Muir)

.

Keeper Hill;

This lad is a much improved chaser compared to the level he reached over hurdles. He’s a Grade2 winner and has form with some of the top novices. There’s a slight doubt about his ability to handle Cheltenham as he’d been kept away from the festival last year and his ability to handle jumping and the rumble tumble of big fields. There’s also the fact he’s got 5 Cheltenham entries in the JLT, RSA, 4miler, Close Brothers Novices Handicap and the Ultima. The owners have said a decision will be made next week so he’s not even a definite runner either. (Since been confirmed “most likely” for 4miler)

.

Pendra; A super horse and super at Cheltenham, his festival record is simply outstanding. A 3rd in the Novices Handicap off 137. After 4months off he was 5th in the Ultima off 140 and last year he was 2nd in Kim Muir off 145 after 11 months off. He’s not ran since last years festival however he’s clearly a cracking horse fresh and at Cheltenham and Charlie Longsdon does a terrific job with him. He is 10 now though so there’s the likelihood he finds one or two just better handicapped and more progressive than he is and there’s the fact that Aintree and Irish nationals are possibilities after running in them before. (Since been confirmed for Kim Muir)

.

Casse Tette;

Casse Tette is an improved horse for Gary Moore however he’s never gone 3m before and he also holds an entry in the Brown Advisory plate in which Moore likes to have a decent chance in. He’s also got poor Cheltenham form and generally been kept to flatter tracks after spending a while in France when with Guillieme Macaire.

.

Those horses definitely have strong chances and I wouldn’t put anyone off however they’re not definite runners, and there’s slight question marks over either their stamina or ability to handle a big rough festival handicap.

.

Heron Heights; Although he’s interesting at 66s, he’s probably just not good enough. He’s got course form, he’s used to big fields, he’ll handle the conditions but he’s ultimately had 4 chances off 137/138 in big handicaps and finished below midfield in 3 of them. De Bromhead also has a terrible record with handicappers in England with just 2 wins from 48 runners. He’s had success at top level with Special Tiara and Sizing Europe but has failed to win a handicap at Cheltenham so this is one I can cross off even though the price is a little tempting.

.

This brings me to my final 7. It’s like the XFactor isn’t it. Ibis Du Rheu, Coo Star Sivola, Big Bad John, Last Goodbye, Dingo Dollar, The Storyteller and Singefarmpayment. Firstly let’s take a look at the specific trainers in question and their records in the Ultima in the last 10 years. Nicholls and NTD both operate in a throw as many darts at the board as possible with even 3/4 runners in one year, Nick Williams has a super record with Reve de Sivola finishing 3rd and Miljama finishing just a neck 2nd. Liz Doyle has never had a runner in the race. Tom George had Singlefarmpayment finish 2nd last year and Elliot has only had 2 in the race, both last year, when he had Clarcam unplace and Noble Endeavor 3rd.

.

King 0080198F39 – 10 runners, 1 winner, 1 place

Nicholls PFF70P5040 – 10 runners, 0 winner, 2 place

Twiston-Davies 690585U7PP8P78 – 14 runners, 0 winners, 2 place

Williams 32 – 2 runners, 0 winners, 2 place

Doyle 0 runs

George 200 – 3 runs, 0 wins, 1 place

Elliot 39 – 2 runs, 0 wins, 1 place

.

Big Bad John is very interesting. Rebecca Curtis horses have left her yard left right and centre and a few have improved with their new stables and this is another to do that. He was rated 144 after winning a G2 for Curtis but he then dropped down to 133 and made a winning start for NTD earlier this month. The poor form was simply down to the fact Rebecca Curtis has had a horrid 12-24 months with poor form due to viruses affecting her horses etc. He’s now 138 after winning on his first start for NTD meaning that he’s still below his peak rating for Curtis. However, there’s doubts about how he’ll handle the course. PU on his only start at the course in the 4m and all 4 career wins have come on flat tracks, Newbury, Kempton and Ascot. He’s got a right chance if he improves off that last run and at 25s I wouldn’t put anyone off but one of my most important factors is course form which he has none. I can imagine he’d be one to run well here but then improve on that at Aintree or Sandown where the courses there are more likely to suit.

.

Dingo Dollar I wrote and tipped up Dingo in the 4m write up, he’s progressive, he travels and he jumps. He’s one of the least exposed going into Cheltenham handicaps and already he’s proven stamina with 4 wins over 2m7+. In a recent interview with King he says that Dingo will not go to the 4k due to his age and is either going the Ultima or the valuable handicap at Ayr. King used to the same route with Label des Obeaux who ran in the Ultima but was much improved when placing at Ayr on Scottish National day. Dingo dollar is 25/1 NRNB and that’s a cracking price if he turns up. If he doesn’t you get your money back but he’s as short as 12/1 without the NRNB so it’s definitely worth taking a chance that he goes at that price. I personally think King mentioning the Ayr race is a bit of a red flag in terms of his chances at Cheltenham, whether he’s not battle hardened or tough enough yet for a big field rough and tumble or whether King just feels the Ayr race is worth targeting but again I wouldn’t put anyone off at 25s NRNB.(Hes since shortened in the betting with this being a confirmed target so at 16s no bet for me.)

.

Ibis du Rheu is really interesting for Paul Nicholls, he’s a previous festival winner when an impressive winner of the Martin Pipe in 2016. He beat a decent field that day with Flying Angel and Tully East just behind and that was off 139. Last year he ended up in the Ultima when sent off 12/1 off a mark of 146. The race didn’t go his way and he was pulled up and wasn’t seen again until a little spin at Newbury last time. That was off a 300+ day break and he definitely shaped like he needed the run. As the weights have come out today, he’s been dropped from 144 to 141 for that run meaning he’s now 5lb lower than last year and only 2lb higher than when winning the Martin Pipe. He’s a really interesting runner and at 33s NRNB he’s definitely worth a shot however he is winless over fences still albeit off much higher marks and having been PU last year, that would put me off a little.

.

Singlefarmpayment. What can you say about this horse. Hes certainly been a cliff horse of mine and if he shows back to his best theres no chance he would be out of the 3 but the last two runs hes just made too many mistakes. A brilliant 2nd in this last year behind Un Temp Pour Tout when sent off fav, he was then primed for the Hennessy when running a monster race coming down at 2 out. Hes been disappointing since but he has been running on softer ground than he likes and he simply loves Cheltenham and could be one of these types that comes alive at Festival time. The worry is Tom George said hes unsure whether to run after the last day and has been sent to a jumping specialist for extra work. If he turns up on the day its a tip in itself but at 10s I can leave.

.

The Storyteller; A horse to be on the cautious side of with having 5 entries however this does seem his most likely destination. He could simply be one of those grade horses in a handicap after having a very light season and nice introduction to fences. Remember he was a monster gamble in the Martin Pipe off just 4lb lower before his injury, as short as 9/2 in some places. He’s clearly been laid out for a handicap of some sort again over fences and his mark is actually quite fair compared to some bits of form. In a G3 at Punchestown he was still going well when clattering the 3rd last which took the stuffing out of him but still he was only beaten 5l by Invitation Only who is likely to be near the top of the betting for the JLT/RSA. The last day looks iffy on form however he was never really put into the race, racing in rear he did his job that day in fishing for a mark and wasnt tested against the likes of Monalee, Invitation Only and Al Boum Photo. That did its job as the handicapper has left him on 147. After Gordon Elliots 3rd in the race last year with Noble Endeavour it would be unwise to rule out The Storyteller, however with multiple entries and the major lack of any course form I’m going to leave him for now.

.

Last Goodbye; This is a horse I really like the profile of. For me he has everything I want in a Cheltenham Festival hopeful. He definitely progressive having hacked up at the Dublin Racing Festival, he definitely handles Cheltenham more of which I’ll talk about in a second. Firstly, the win last time out in a Grade A handicap was phenomenal. He was given a smart ride by 7lb claimer Adam Short and couldnt have been more impressive in the finish. That was 2m5 and he wasnt stopping. He went up 12lb for that and the English handicapper has added an extra 2lb. Add to the fact he was ridden by a 7lb claimer and more than likely Sean Flanagan will ride, hes basically going to be running off 21lb higher than at Leopardstown. His run last year however in the Close Brothers was absolutely amazing if you watch it back. He was travelling well turning in just a length down on winner and 3rd Tully East and Gold Present. At the 2nd last two horses fall right infront of him and completely stop his stride. Flanagan basically pulls him to a stop, loses 7/8l and starts from scratch. Now its impossible to say where he’d have finished without the interference but the way he flew up the hill was amazing, you really have to watch it to see the full effects of the ground lost and the horses he caught up with after the last. He’s without doubt a massive interest for me with the way he finished the race off last year. He’s unexposed at the trip, he obviously improved loads for the blinkers and tongue tie the last day and he loves the Cheltenham Hill. My two slight nags are that he’s going to be racing off 21lb higher and you’ll probably get bigger than his current price on the day with connections/trainers not being big names.

.

(Here you can see the mess Last Goodbye found himself in before absolutely flying up the hill, marked by yellow, making up so many lengths on Powersbomb, red, and Bun Doran, blue.)

.

Coo Star Sivola

Nick Williams has a decent enough Cheltenham record considering he has such a small string. 2 runners in the Ultima before with a 2nd and 3rd(Maljima beaten a neck and Reve De Sivola) and he’s had horses perform at Cheltenham festival that come back and do it again. Reve de sivola 2nd Neptune 3rd Ultima and 4th in stayers, Flying tiger won the Fred winter last year. For Non Stop fell at last when 2nd in coral cup, Cornas 4th in Grand Annual , Swinconbe flame 3rd to Quevega in the Mares , James De Vasse 3rd in Coral cup and Diamond Harry 3rd in Neptune.

.

CSS Cheltenham form reads 23164324

Festival form; 3rd of 22 off 132 in Fred Winter. 4th of 23 off 138 in Martin Pipe

.

Last year he was hammered in the Martin Pipe from a morning price of 20/1 into 13/2 at the off. He loves the place and has been running well in top races this year as well. Early chase form decent but nothing special, behind Movewiththetimes and Finains Oscar in one novice at Cheltenham, then behind Kalondra and finished ahead of Movewiththetimes in another. Was given 135 chase mark which is just below what is required so on trials day he was hammered in the betting as they needed a win but heavy ground not to his liking, staying on 4th behind much proven and soft ground lovers Frodon, Shantou Flyer and Kings Odyssey. Ran last Friday at Exeter and also stepped up in trip. That brought about huge improvement and won in a hack canter over 3m. This is his only handicap entry and with a good rise from that win he’s guaranteed a run now rated 142. He’s unexposed over 3m but always shaped like the trip would suit and festival form unreal with a trainer who gets them ready at Cheltenham.

In last years Martin Pipe, Coo Star Sivola was up there with the pace throughout and did a lot of the donkey work after half way, in the blue/white silks you can see hes one of the first off the bridle after getting outpaced but finds and finds for pressure and really stays up the hill. In the Fred Winter the year before, he again did most of the donkey work before plugging on late after getting outpaced. I think if they ride him quieter than the last two festival runs, with the step up in trip he could really relish that finish.

.

Overall, I think that Singlefarmpayment would be extremely dangerous on old form if hes back to his best but after his last 2 runs its a worry. Ibis Du Rheu is a cracking bet at 33s NRNB considering hes much lower than when 12/1 in the race the year before, he’s also a previous festival winner off just 2lb lower. The Storyteller is a danger in whatever race he turns up for, for a trainer who knows the time of day with festival handicaps however the lack of Cheltenham form is the only thing stopping me from selecting him. Last Goodbye has a cracking chance, and the more you watch the finish to his race last year and the way he finished last time out, he could eat up that hill late on but I believe he’s not an antepost bet currently as you will get the same or bigger on the day. Coo Star Sivola was a smash up 20s into 13/2 last year, he’s placed at the last two Cheltenham festivals and from a source who’s had just 2 runners with 2 places in the race before. I simply can’t see him out the frame and I can see him going off sub 10/1 on the day. At 16’s he’s great value and is my main selection.

.

My Ultima Top 5

1. Coo Star Sivola 16/1

2. Last Goodbye 16/1

3. The Storyteller 14/1

4. Ibis du Rheu 33/1

5. Singlefarmpayment 10/1

.

Advised;

0.5pts ew – Ibis Du Rheu – 33/1 NRNB Bet365 + BetVictor

2pts win – Coo Star Sivola – 16/1*

*when advised on Twitter, now best priced 14/1.